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The latest Bet Better model pick for Kyle Schwarber is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 58%, for a model edge of +17.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 11:32AM UTC
MLB

Kyle Schwarber

PHI

+17.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -139 (1.72)
+17.6% Edge
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Thu 16 Jul, 11:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
75.7%
Implied Probability
58.1%
Model Edge
+17.6%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases75.7%—58.1%1.32+17.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Kyle Schwarber (PHI) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-139)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Phillies gear up to face the Mets on July 16, all eyes should be on Kyle Schwarber's total bases. With an impressive start to the season, Schwarber has shown flashes of brilliance, but recent trends indicate a dip in production against left-handed pitchers—specifically, he’s managed just a .200 average lately when facing southpaws. The Mets’ starter, likely a lefty, has been effective at limiting damage, boasting a solid WHIP and an uptick in strikeouts against left-handed hitters. Moreover, the Phillies’ lineup has been a bit stagnant, struggling to produce runs consistently. With Schwarber’s current form and the matchup against a tough lefty, betting on him to stay under 1.5 total bases feels like a wise play. The numbers suggest he’ll have a challenging night at the plate, especially when taking into account his recent performance trends.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Batter - Total BasesUpcoming vs NYMU 1.5 -139+17.6% edge
60%hit L10
Streak5L2067%

Kyle Schwarber MLB total bases: cleared under 1.5 in 60% of the last 10 games vs NYM. Current line U 1.5 at -139 (+17.6% model edge).

Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2060%
O 0.570%
O 1.530%
O 2.510%

Kyle Schwarber MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Kyle Schwarber MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2060%
O 0.570%
O 1.540%
O 2.540%
O 3.520%
O 4.510%

Kyle Schwarber MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%
O 1.510%
O 2.510%

Kyle Schwarber MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%
O 1.510%

Kyle Schwarber MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2053%

Kyle Schwarber MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Jul 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 0.5 Over -278 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kyle Schwarber is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.6% on this pick. Their next game is New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday 16 July at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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