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Rafael Marchan

PHI

Value call

Rafael Marchan has one live pick today: under 0.5 walks that pays $131 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
79 in 100
Predicted
0.0 walks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 78.8% · before adjusting for past results 98.3% · the book's price implies 76.3% · gap +2.5%.

Latest Model PickFree
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Thu 10 Sep, 1:05 PM ET
Rafael Marchan
under 0.5 walks
Batter - Walks Under 0.5 -323 (1.31) · $100→$131
Value call
HIGHWins about 79 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.10 Odds-323
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Rafael Marchan is Under 0.5 on Batter - Walks.
On Batter - Walks, our numbers say this bet wins about 79 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 79%, the price says 76%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Oct 21, 10:50PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher outs unders: 144 of 249 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Walks98.3%78.8%76.3%1.39+21.9%

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AI Analysis

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros: Rafael Marchan Under 0.5 Batter - Walks (-323)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

The Philadelphia Phillies are on a solid roll, scoring 1.4 more runs per game recently and winning 6 of their last 10. Rafael Marchan, who is up against the Houston Astros, has a tough matchup today. The Astros have also been winning and are known to pressure pitchers, but they struggle against left-handed starters. Given Marchan's recent performance and how he has been up against tough pitching, betting on him to get under 0.5 walks makes sense. The risk here is that both teams are closely matched in their recent form, which could lead to unexpected moments. Overall, Marchan's chances of walking seem low today.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Sep 26 Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Walks 0.5 Under -323 ✓ HIT
10 Sep 26 Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 0.5 Under +127 ✓ HIT
10 Sep 26 Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Runs Scored 0.5 Under -222 ✓ HIT
10 Sep 26 Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - RBIs — — — Pending
10 Sep 26 Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Singles — — — Pending
10 Sep 26 Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Doubles — — — Pending

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About This Player

Rafael Marchan (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Rafael Marchan is Under 0.5 on Batter - Walks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +21.9% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday 10 September at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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