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The latest Bet Better model pick for Cam Smith is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 80%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +17.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 1:43AM UTC
MLB

Cam Smith

HOU

+17.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -167 (1.60)
+17.9% Edge
Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals
Nationals Park, Washington, District of Columbia · Outdoor
Mon 6 Jul, 10:45PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
80.4%
Implied Probability
62.5%
Model Edge
+17.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases80.4%—62.5%1.24+17.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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Cam Smith (HOU) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-167)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Washington Nationals gear up to face the Houston Astros, all eyes will be on Cam Smith, but betting on him to clear 1.5 total bases seems a stretch. The Nationals’ recent struggles against left-handed pitching are well-documented, and with the Astros throwing a southpaw, Smith’s chances to shine diminish. Over the last month, the Nationals have been underwhelming, averaging just 3.8 runs per game, and Smith himself has been on a bit of a cold streak, finding it tough to make solid contact. Moreover, while the Astros' bullpen has been lights out, holding opponents to a mere .225 batting average, the stage is set for a low-scoring affair. With a model prediction of just 0.81 total bases for Smith, it feels wise to lean into the under here. This matchup has all the makings of a tough day at the office for him, making the under an appealing bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%
O 1.510%

Cam Smith MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.520%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%

Cam Smith MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Cam Smith MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%
O 1.520%
O 2.520%
O 3.510%

Cam Smith MLB hits + runs + rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Cam Smith MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Cam Smith MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.510%

Cam Smith MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Jul 26 Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -167 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Cam Smith (HOU) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Cam Smith is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.9% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals on Monday 6 July at Nationals Park, Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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