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Model picks & player props
Chicago White Sox
VS
Houston Astros

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 9:19PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Minute Maid Park, Houston
Indoor
Fri 13 Jun 2025, 12:10AM
20
Game markets graded
5
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Chicago White Sox 1.5 (Spread)
The model graded 25 markets for Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $200 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 58.8%, fair odds 1.70, book price +100, model edge +8.8%. Tip-off Fri 13 Jun 2025, 12:10AM at Minute Maid Park.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Chicago White Sox
+1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Chicago White SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago White Sox

  • Chase Meidroth 2BDay-to-day
  • Drew Thorpe SPOut
  • Joey Bart COut
  • Chris Murphy RPOut
  • Jordan Leasure RPOut
  • Kyle Teel COut
  • Prelander Berroa RPOut
  • Ky Bush SPOut
  • Mike Vasil RPOut
  • Tanner Murray LFOut
  • Brooks Baldwin LFOut

Houston Astros

  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Hayden Wesneski SP
Availability updated Aug 11, 1:45AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Davis Martin CHW Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Davis Martin CHW Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Framber Valdez HOU Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jeremy Pena HOU Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Michael A. Taylor CHW Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineHouston AstrosNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Chicago White Sox L52-3Free board12-8

Houston Astros moneyline form: last five 4-1, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineHouston Astros run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Chicago White Sox L52-3Free board14-9

Houston Astros spread form: last five 4-1, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Houston Astros vs Chicago White SoxNo line posted

Houston Astros total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsHouston Astros team totalNo line posted
2.3runs we expect
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Chicago White Sox L52-3

Houston Astros team total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.0 runs/gm.

Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros — what the model found

Our model graded 25 betting markets for Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros — 20 on the game itself and 5 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
5
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 25 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 24 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros — recent results

Houston Astros have won 2 of their last 5 games; Chicago White Sox have won 2 of their last 5.

Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–7SDAway
W6–3SDAway
L2–3SDAway
W7–2TORHome
L4–5TORHome
Chicago White Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3CLEHome
W6–3CLEHome
L2–8CLEHome
L11–12BOSAway
L0–4BOSAway

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Houston Astros won 2, Chicago White Sox won 1.

DateHouston AstrosChicago White SoxWinner
Jul 26312Chicago White Sox
Jul 2541Houston Astros
Jul 2495Houston Astros

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT
Chicago White Sox
PlayerStatus
Chase Meidroth 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Drew Thorpe SPOUT
Joey Bart COUT
Chris Murphy RPOUT
Jordan Leasure RPOUT
Kyle Teel COUT
Prelander Berroa RPOUT
Ky Bush SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros — model preview

Deep dive into Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox stats and odds.

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox : Chicago White Sox +1.5 (+104)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Chicago White Sox are a solid bet for the Run Line market based on the away team's recent performance. Despite the Houston Astros' strong home record, the White Sox have been consistent in their scoring average, maintaining an average of 3 runs in their last 5 games, both overall and away. Moreover, the White Sox's defense has been effective, allowing only 2.4 runs on average in their last 5 games, both overall and away. This is a significant statistic as it's lower than the Astros' scoring average of 3.4 runs. Hence, the White Sox have demonstrated a solid defensive performance that can keep the Astros' scoring in check. This, coupled with their consistent scoring, makes them a good bet to cover the 1.5 Run Line.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Astros, or as Astros vs Sox. The most recent game between them was Friday 13 June 2025 at Minute Maid Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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