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The latest Bet Better model pick for Hunter Brown is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +6.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
MLB

Hunter Brown

HOU

+6.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -769 (1.13)
+6.6% Edge
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Fri 8 Aug, 11:05PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
95.1%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+6.6%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed95.1%—88.5%1.05+6.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Hunter Brown (HOU) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-769)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Hunter Brown for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed (Alternate) market is a sound choice considering his recent performance data. Brown's last five games show an average of 3.4 hits allowed overall and 4 hits allowed when playing away. This is above the line set at 2.5. Furthermore, when facing the Yankees, his average hits allowed increases to 4.7. His innings pitched average is also lower against the Yankees at 4.7, compared to 6.2 overall and 6 when playing away, indicating that he tends to allow more hits in fewer innings against this team. The data suggests that Brown is more likely to allow over 2.5 hits in the upcoming game against the Yankees, making this bet a reasonable choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak2L2090%
O 3.580%
O 4.560%
O 5.560%
O 6.550%
O 7.530%
O 8.510%

Hunter Brown MLB strikeouts: cleared over 3.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2080%
O 2.570%
O 3.560%
O 4.530%
O 5.510%
O 6.510%
O 7.510%

Hunter Brown MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak2L2090%
O 0.580%
O 1.540%
O 2.520%

Hunter Brown MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
18.6avg outs · L5
Streak7L2085%

Hunter Brown MLB outs: cleared over 17.5 in 90% of the last 10 games; averaging 18.6 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Hunter Brown (HOU) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Hunter Brown is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.6% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Astros vs New York Yankees on Friday 8 August at Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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