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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 11, 9:34PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Indoor
Mon 13 Apr 2026, 8:10PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Seattle Mariners -3.5 (Spread)
The model graded 20 markets for Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $440 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 30.6%, fair odds 3.27, book price +340, model edge +7.9%. Tip-off Mon 13 Apr 2026, 8:10PM at T-Mobile Park.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 559 of 1,032 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 5.5
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $363
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Seattle Mariners
-3
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Hunter Brown SP

Seattle Mariners

  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Cooper Criswell RPOut
  • J.P. Crawford SSOut
  • Carlos Vargas RPOut
  • Cole Wilcox RPOut
  • Luke Raley RFOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut

Probable pitcher

Bryan Woo SP
Availability updated Aug 12, 1:45AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSeattle MarinersNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Houston Astros L54-1

Seattle Mariners moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineSeattle Mariners run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Houston Astros L54-1Free board9-9

Seattle Mariners spread form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Seattle Mariners vs Houston AstrosNo line posted

Seattle Mariners total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSeattle Mariners team totalNo line posted
1.8runs we expect
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Houston Astros L54-1

Seattle Mariners team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners — recent results

Seattle Mariners have won 1 of their last 5 games; Houston Astros have won 2 of their last 5.

Seattle Mariners — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–3TBHome
L1–4TBHome
L1–2TBHome
W4–2DETHome
L0–11DETHome
Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–7SDAway
W6–3SDAway
L2–3SDAway
W7–2TORHome
L4–5TORHome

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Seattle Mariners are scoring 1.4 runs per game (1-4) while Houston Astros are at 3.8 (3-2); Seattle Mariners pitchers are allowing 2.0 earned runs per game versus 4.0 for Houston Astros.

1.4
Seattle Mariners runs/G
3.8
Houston Astros runs/G
Last 5 gamesSeattle MarinersHouston Astros
Runs / game1.43.8
Hits / game2.05.4
Home runs / game0.20.6
Walks drawn / game1.01.4
Batter K / game3.41.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.04.0
Pitching K / game1.82.6
Walks allowed / game1.42.0
L5 record1-43-2

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Seattle Mariners
PlayerStatus
Matt Brash RPOUT
Cooper Criswell RPOUT
J.P. Crawford SSOUT
Carlos Vargas RPOUT
Cole Wilcox RPOUT
Luke Raley RFOUT
Will Wilson 3BOUT
Logan Evans SPOUT
Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros stats and odds.

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros : Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+128)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Astros vs Mariners, or as Mariners vs Astros. The most recent game between them was Monday 13 April 2026 at T-Mobile Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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