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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 4:44PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Indoor
Mon 13 Apr 2026, 8:10PM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Seattle Mariners -3.5 (Spread)
For Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners (MLB), model win probability 30.6%, fair odds 3.27, book price +340, model edge +7.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Mon 13 Apr 2026, 8:10PM at T-Mobile Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Seattle Mariners
-2.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Christian Walker 1BDay-to-day
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Hayden Wesneski SPOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut

Probable pitcher

Ronel Blanco SP

Seattle Mariners

  • Julio Rodriguez CFDay-to-day
  • J.P. Crawford SSDay-to-day
  • Rob Refsnyder DHOut
  • Brendan Donovan 3BOut
  • Cooper Criswell RPOut
  • Carlos Vargas RPOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut

Probable pitcher

George Kirby SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 4:51AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSeattle MarinersNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Houston Astros L54-1Win rec7-3

Seattle Mariners moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineSeattle Mariners run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Houston Astros L54-1ATS10-4

Seattle Mariners spread form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Seattle Mariners vs Houston AstrosNo line posted

Seattle Mariners total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSeattle Mariners team totalNo line posted
2.1implied team total
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Houston Astros L54-1

Seattle Mariners team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Seattle Mariners are scoring 1.4 runs per game (1-4) while Houston Astros are at 3.8 (3-2); Seattle Mariners pitchers are allowing 2.0 earned runs per game versus 4.0 for Houston Astros.

1.4
Seattle Mariners runs/G
3.8
Houston Astros runs/G
Last 5 gamesSeattle MarinersHouston Astros
Runs / game1.43.8
Hits / game2.05.4
Home runs / game0.20.6
Walks drawn / game1.01.4
Batter K / game3.41.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.04.0
Pitching K / game1.82.6
Walks allowed / game1.42.0
L5 record1-43-2

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros stats and odds.</p>

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros : Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+128)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros : Seattle Mariners -2 (+153)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros : Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+126)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-105)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-108)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros : Seattle Mariners Win (-167)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
5
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
13 Apr 26 Moneyline Seattle Mariners ✓ HIT
13 Apr 26 Spread Seattle Mariners -2.5 ✓ HIT
13 Apr 26 Spread Seattle Mariners -4 ✓ HIT
13 Apr 26 Spread Seattle Mariners -3.5 ✓ HIT
13 Apr 26 Spread Seattle Mariners -5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Monday 13 April 2026 at T-Mobile Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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