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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Detroit Tigers

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 21, 12:42PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Comerica Park, Detroit
Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 9.5 Total Runs +220

The model graded 20 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $320 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM at Comerica Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win45.8%
The price says31.3%
Best price+220
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 9.5 Lean46% chance +220
Total Runs Lean50% chance
Total Runs Lean53% chance
Total Runs High61% chance
Total Runs Lean57% chance
Total Runs High64% chance
Spread Long-shot28% chance
Spread Long-shot25% chance
Spread Long-shot32% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 9.5 · $100 returned $222

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 840 of 1,690 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 21
Under 4.5
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $483
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
5.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 55,242+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Detroit Tigers

  • James Outman CFOut
  • Kerry Carpenter RFOut
  • Jack Flaherty SPOut
  • Riley Greene LFOut
  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Brant Hurter RPOut
  • Justin Verlander SPOut
  • Matt Vierling CFOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
  • Reese Olson SPOut
Availability updated Aug 20, 7:30PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineDetroit TigersNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.6Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L55-0Free board8-7

Detroit Tigers moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineDetroit Tigers run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.6Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L55-0

Detroit Tigers spread form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Detroit Tigers total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsDetroit Tigers team totalNo line posted
1.7runs we expect
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.6Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L55-0

Detroit Tigers team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers — recent results

Detroit Tigers have won 1 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 5 of their last 5.

Detroit Tigers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–4PITAway
L1–4PITAway
W8–5PITAway
L5–7CHWHome
L3–4CHWHome
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–1MIAHome
W6–4MIAHome
W6–5MIAHome
W7–5MINAway
W9–1MINAway

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Detroit Tigers are scoring 5.4 runs per game (4-1) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 3.2 (3-2); Detroit Tigers pitchers are allowing 1.0 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Philadelphia Phillies.

5.4
Detroit Tigers runs/G
3.2
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesDetroit TigersPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game5.43.2
Hits / game6.04.4
Home runs / game1.20.8
Walks drawn / game2.01.8
Batter K / game5.24.4
Earned runs allowed / game1.03.6
Pitching K / game4.65.2
Walks allowed / game1.01.6
L5 record4-13-2

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers — recent meetings

These two have met 5 times recently: Detroit Tigers won 2, Philadelphia Phillies won 2.

DateDetroit TigersPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Jul 1205Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 1124Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 10102Detroit Tigers
Mar 2044Draw
Mar 16136Detroit Tigers

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Detroit Tigers
PlayerStatus
James Outman CFOUT
Kerry Carpenter RFOUT
Jack Flaherty SPOUT
Riley Greene LFOUT
Wenceel Perez RFOUT
Will Vest RPOUT
Brant Hurter RPOUT
Justin Verlander SPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
10 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Tigers, or as Tigers vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Sunday 12 July 2026 at Comerica Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 5 meetings
Even at 2–2 across the last 5 meetings · 1 draw
DateGameScoreWinner
12 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers0–5Philadelphia Phillies
11 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers2–4Philadelphia Phillies
10 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers10–2Detroit Tigers
20 Mar 2026Detroit Tigers @ Philadelphia Phillies4–4Draw
16 Mar 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers13–6Detroit Tigers
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