Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Detroit Tigers

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 1, 9:59AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Comerica Park, Detroit
Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game Picks
2
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Detroit Tigers -3 (Spread)
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers (MLB), model win probability 28.4%, fair odds 3.52, book price +377, model edge +7.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM at Comerica Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Detroit Tigers
-4
+ 19 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

See the full board for this matchup — every market, every line, every edge — plus every pick across the slate.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Unlock the full calibrated board

See the model's calibrated probability, fair odds and edge on every market in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Lou Trivino RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Painter SP

Detroit Tigers

  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Matt Vierling CFOut
  • Jack Flaherty SPOut
  • Kerry Carpenter RFOut
  • Jackson Jobe SPOut
  • Brant Hurter RPOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Justin Verlander SPOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
  • Reese Olson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Tyler Holton SP
Availability updated Aug 1, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Trea Turner PHI Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Alec Bohm PHI Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

Unlock every player prop for this game

Get the player, the line, the pick and the edge on every graded prop in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock player props
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineDetroit TigersNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF5.4L5 RA1.6Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1Win rec6-4

Detroit Tigers moneyline form: last five 4-1, 5.4 runs/gm.

Run LineDetroit Tigers run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF5.4L5 RA1.6Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1ATS5-8

Detroit Tigers spread form: last five 4-1, 5.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Detroit Tigers total runs form: last five 4-1, 5.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsDetroit Tigers team totalNo line posted
3.7implied team total
L5 RF5.4L5 RA1.6Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1

Detroit Tigers team total runs form: last five 4-1, 5.4 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Detroit Tigers are scoring 5.4 runs per game (4-1) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 3.2 (3-2); Detroit Tigers pitchers are allowing 1.0 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Philadelphia Phillies.

5.4
Detroit Tigers runs/G
3.2
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesDetroit TigersPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game5.43.2
Hits / game6.04.4
Home runs / game1.20.8
Walks drawn / game2.01.8
Batter K / game5.24.4
Earned runs allowed / game1.03.6
Pitching K / game4.65.2
Walks allowed / game1.01.6
L5 record4-13-2

Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Trea Turner. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies stats and odds.</p>

Trea Turner (PHI) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-169)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Tigers face off against the Phillies, all eyes will be on Trea Turner. While his speed and batting prowess are undeniable, recent trends suggest that he may struggle to rack up total bases today. Turner’s been facing a tough Tigers pitching staff, especially with right-hander Matt Manning on the mound. Manning's ability to limit hard contact has been impressive lately, and he’s been particularly effective at home with a solid WHIP under 1.20. Moreover, Turner has seen his power dip against righties, with a batting average that plummets in similar matchups. The Tigers' bullpen has also been sneaky good, often shutting down opposing hitters late in the game. Given these factors, betting on Turner to stay under 1.5 total bases feels prudent, especially considering the recent trends. It’s shaping up to be a day where the bats might not break out, particularly for Turner.

Alec Bohm (PHI) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-179)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Tigers host the Phillies, Alec Bohm’s recent form suggests a tough day at the plate is ahead. With the Tigers' pitching staff showing significant improvement lately—posting a 3.58 ERA over their last 10 games—Bohm may struggle to find his rhythm. He’s been a solid contributor this season, but his recent numbers paint a different picture, as he’s only managed to cross the 1.5 total bases mark in a third of his last ten outings. Combine this with the fact that the Tigers are effectively utilizing their bullpen, allowing just a .220 batting average against. With Bohm facing a lineup of crafty pitchers who can effectively neutralize his strengths, the under on 1.5 total bases for him feels like the right call. In a game where every run counts, expect Bohm to find the going tough against a resurgent Detroit staff.

Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies : Over 7 Total Runs (-132)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Detroit Tigers host the Philadelphia Phillies this Sunday, a compelling case emerges for betting on the 'Over 7' total runs. The Tigers have been swinging hot bats recently, averaging over five runs per game in their last ten outings, fueled by a lineup that’s found its rhythm. Meanwhile, the Phillies have shown they can match that firepower, consistently driving in runs with a potent offense that thrives on the road. On the mound, both teams are fielding pitchers who have had their ups and downs. With the Tigers’ starter having a tendency to give up runs early, and the Phillies’ rotation struggling to find form, we could easily see a back-and-forth slugfest. Given the model's prediction of nearly nine total runs, it’s clear that the odds favor a lively scoring affair. With both teams eager to capitalize, taking the 'Over' feels like the right play here.

Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies : Detroit Tigers Win (-112)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Tigers gear up to face the Phillies this Sunday, the spotlight is on Detroit's impressive home form. They've been a force at Comerica Park, showcasing a potent offense that’s averaged over five runs per game in their last ten outings. Meanwhile, Philadelphia's pitching staff has struggled to keep runs at bay, with a recent trend of allowing big innings that could spell trouble against a hungry Tigers lineup. Detroit’s starting pitcher has been particularly sharp, boasting a strikeout rate that ranks among the league's elite. With their recent surge in both hitting and pitching, the Tigers are riding a wave of momentum that’s hard to overlook. As they chase a playoff push, expect the home crowd to rally behind them. Given these dynamics, backing the Tigers on the moneyline feels like a savvy play in this matchup.

Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies : Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+190)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As we look ahead to this intriguing matchup between the Tigers and Phillies, it’s hard to overlook Detroit's recent surge. The Tigers have been playing with a newfound confidence at home, boasting a 7-3 record in their last ten games. Their bats are coming alive, with players like Riley Greene stepping up, hitting over .300 during this stretch and driving in crucial runs. On the mound, Detroit's starter has shown impressive command, striking out over a batter per inning while limiting opponents to a modest .220 batting average. Meanwhile, the Phillies’ rotation has been shaky, especially away from home, where they struggle to maintain consistency. Given these trends, backing the Tigers at -1.5 on the run line feels like a smart move. With their potent offense and solid pitching, they have the tools to not just win, but do so convincingly against a floundering Phillies team.

Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies : Over 6.5 Total Runs (-167)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Tigers host the Phillies, the stage is set for a high-scoring affair. Both teams have been swinging hot bats lately, with Detroit boasting a robust .270 average over their last 10 games. Meanwhile, Philadelphia's lineup, known for their power, has been equally formidable, racking up runs with a .260 average and consistently pushing the envelope against right-handed pitching. On the mound, the Tigers' starter has struggled with consistency, allowing an average of 5 runs per game this season, which could spell trouble against a Phillies' offense that thrives on capitalizing on mistakes. Conversely, Philadelphia’s pitcher has seen his share of challenges as well, often giving up several earned runs, especially on the road. Given these trends and the historical propensity for both teams to hit the over, expecting more than 6.5 runs seems more than reasonable. Grab the over, because this game has the makings of a run-fest!

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
6
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
12 Jul 26 Moneyline Detroit Tigers ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Spread Detroit Tigers -4 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Spread Detroit Tigers -2 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Spread Detroit Tigers -2.5 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Spread Detroit Tigers -3.5 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Spread Detroit Tigers -3 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 12 July 2026 at Comerica Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.