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Model picks & player props
MLB
Comerica Park, Detroit
Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 1:40 PM ET
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Detroit Tigers

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 22 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers and backs Over 0.5 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $230.

20
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Over 0.5 total runs 1st 1 innings
Over 0.5 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings
You bet$10 If it wins$23.00Best price+130
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win64.2%
The price says43.5%

The model graded 22 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $230 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 12 Jul 2026, 1:40 PM ET at Comerica Park.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 High64% chance +130
Total Runs Members only Lean46% chance Members
Spread Members only Long-shot28% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean59% chance Members
Batter - Total Bases × 2 props Highup to 72% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Philadelphia Phillies and Detroit Tigers last met on Sun 12 Jul 2026: Philadelphia Phillies won 5-0. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings
Over
0.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 2 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 67,392+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Detroit Tigers

  • Reese Olson SPOut
  • Kerry Carpenter RFOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Colt Keith 3BOut
  • Troy Melton SPOut
  • Kyle Finnegan RPOut
  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Matt Vierling CFOut
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Jake Miller SPDay-to-day
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
Availability updated Oct 9, 6:24PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Trea Turner PHI Batter - Total Bases
Alec Bohm PHI Batter - Total Bases

+ 2 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineDetroit TigersNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.2L5 RA4.8Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L52-3

Detroit Tigers moneyline form: last five 2-3, 4.2 runs/gm.

Run LineDetroit Tigers run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.2L5 RA4.8Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L52-3

Detroit Tigers spread form: last five 2-3, 4.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Detroit Tigers total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsDetroit Tigers team totalNo line posted
4.8runs we expect
L5 RF4.2L5 RA4.8Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L52-3

Detroit Tigers team total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.2 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers — what the model found

Our model graded 22 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers — 20 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 22 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 21 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers — recent results

Detroit Tigers have won 2 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5.

Detroit Tigers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–4PITHome
W4–3PITHome
W8–7PITHome
L2–4WSHHome
L1–3WSHHome
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–6ATLAway
W4–3ATLAway
L3–5ATLAway
W7–3TBHome
L1–12TBHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Detroit Tigers are scoring 5.4 runs per game (4-1) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 3.2 (3-2); Detroit Tigers pitchers are allowing 1.0 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Philadelphia Phillies.

5.4
Detroit Tigers runs/G
3.2
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesDetroit TigersPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game5.43.2
Hits / game6.04.4
Home runs / game1.20.8
Walks drawn / game2.01.8
Batter K / game5.24.4
Earned runs allowed / game1.03.6
Pitching K / game4.65.2
Walks allowed / game1.01.6
L5 record4-13-2

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers — recent meetings

These two have met 7 times recently: Detroit Tigers won 3, Philadelphia Phillies won 3.

DateDetroit TigersPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Jul 1205Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 1124Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 10102Detroit Tigers
Mar 2044Draw
Mar 16136Detroit Tigers
Feb 27168Detroit Tigers
Feb 2535Philadelphia Phillies

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Detroit Tigers
PlayerStatus
Reese Olson SPOUT
Kerry Carpenter RFOUT
Burch Smith RPOUT
Parker Meadows CFOUT
Colt Keith 3BOUT
Troy Melton SPOUT
Kyle Finnegan RPOUT
Wenceel Perez RFOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Trea Turner. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies stats and odds.

Trea Turner (PHI) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-169)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Tigers face off against the Phillies, all eyes will be on Trea Turner. While his speed and batting prowess are undeniable, recent trends suggest that he may struggle to rack up total bases today. Turner’s been facing a tough Tigers pitching staff, especially with right-hander Matt Manning on the mound. Manning's ability to limit hard contact has been impressive lately, and he’s been particularly effective at home with a solid WHIP under 1.20. Moreover, Turner has seen his power dip against righties, with a batting average that plummets in similar matchups. The Tigers' bullpen has also been sneaky good, often shutting down opposing hitters late in the game. Given these factors, betting on Turner to stay under 1.5 total bases feels prudent, especially considering the recent trends. It’s shaping up to be a day where the bats might not break out, particularly for Turner.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Tigers, or as Tigers vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Sunday 12 July 2026 at Comerica Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers head-to-head record

Final scores · 28 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 14–11 across the last 28 meetings · 3 draws · these games average 8.4 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Sun 12 Jul 2026, Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers: the Phillies won 5-0.

DateGameScoreWinner
12 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers0–5Philadelphia Phillies
11 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers2–4Philadelphia Phillies
10 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers10–2Detroit Tigers
20 Mar 2026Detroit Tigers @ Philadelphia Phillies4–4Draw
16 Mar 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers13–6Detroit Tigers
27 Feb 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers16–8Detroit Tigers
25 Feb 2026Detroit Tigers @ Philadelphia Phillies5–3Philadelphia Phillies
3 Aug 2025Detroit Tigers @ Philadelphia Phillies2–0Philadelphia Phillies
2 Aug 2025Detroit Tigers @ Philadelphia Phillies5–7Detroit Tigers
1 Aug 2025Detroit Tigers @ Philadelphia Phillies5–4Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 28 meetings on file.

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