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Model picks & player props
Detroit Tigers
VS
Toronto Blue Jays

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:19AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Rogers Centre, Toronto
Indoor
Sun 18 May 2025, 5:37PM
20
Game Picks
5
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 4.5 (Team Total Runs)
For Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays (MLB), model win probability 43.6%, fair odds 2.30, book price +152, model edge +3.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 18 May 2025, 5:37PM at Rogers Centre.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Runs
Over
5.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Detroit Tigers

  • Kerry Carpenter RFDay-to-day
  • Javier Baez SSOut
  • Jackson Jobe SPOut
  • Casey Mize SPDay-to-day
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Justin Verlander SPOut
  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
  • Brant Hurter RPOut
  • Reese Olson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Jack Flaherty SP

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Max Scherzer SPOut
  • Lenyn Sosa 2BOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jesus Sanchez RFOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Dylan Cease SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 5:08AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 23 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability23 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Spencer Torkelson DET Batter -Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jose Berrios TOR Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jose Berrios TOR Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Zach McKinstry DET Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
George Springer TOR Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineToronto Blue JaysNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.6Home L52-3vs Detroit Tigers L52-3Win rec3-9

Toronto Blue Jays moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Run LineToronto Blue Jays run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.6Home L52-3vs Detroit Tigers L52-3ATS5-9

Toronto Blue Jays spread form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersNo line posted

Toronto Blue Jays total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsToronto Blue Jays team totalNo line posted
1.8implied team total
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.6Home L52-3vs Detroit Tigers L52-3

Toronto Blue Jays team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025 at Rogers Centre. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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