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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Chicago White Sox

New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 22, 1:16AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 11:10PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Mets -1.5 Spread +168

The model graded 20 markets for New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $268 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 22 Aug 2026, 11:10PM at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win55.8%
The price says37.3%
Best price+168
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread New York Mets -1.5 Lean56% chance +168
Moneyline High67% chance
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Lean40% chance
Spread Long-shot14% chance
Total Runs Lean49% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 840 of 1,690 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 21
Under 4.5
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $483
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
New York Mets
-1.5
+ 19 more markets
Unlock with Pro
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All 20 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 55,269+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Chicago White Sox on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Chicago White Sox
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Hardrockbet
on Over
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Sean Manaea SP

Chicago White Sox

  • Davis Martin SPOut
  • Kyle Teel COut
  • Drew Thorpe SPOut
  • Joey Bart COut
  • Chris Murphy RPOut
  • Jordan Leasure RPOut
  • Prelander Berroa RPOut
  • Ky Bush SPOut
  • Mike Vasil RPOut
  • Tanner Murray LFOut
  • Brooks Baldwin LFOut

Probable pitcher

Sean Burke SP
Availability updated Aug 21, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The plate umpire

Behind the plate: Ramon De Jesus. Games he has called average 9.9 runs across 18 games on record — the league average this season is 9.1.

Betting angles

3 markets live
MoneylineNew York Mets to win+116
67%model win %
4-1L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.4Away L52-3vs Chicago White Sox L54-1Free board8-8

New York Mets moneyline vs Chicago White Sox is live and our model makes it 67% (HIGH); L5 record 4-1.

Run LineNew York Mets run line-1.5 +168
56%cover %
-3.2proj. margin
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.4Away L52-3vs Chicago White Sox L54-1

New York Mets spread vs Chicago White Sox is live and our model makes it 56% (LEAN); proj. margin -3.2.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago White Sox vs New York MetsOver 8 -104
53%over %
9.9proj. runs
L5 RF2.4L5 RA2.4Home L51-4vs New York Mets L51-4

Chicago White Sox total runs vs New York Mets is live and our model makes it 53% (LEAN); proj. runs 9.9.

Team Total RunsChicago White Sox team totalNo line posted
1.4runs we expect
L5 RF2.4L5 RA2.4Home L51-4vs New York Mets L51-4

Chicago White Sox team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.4 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for New York Mets at Chicago White Sox — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox — recent results

Chicago White Sox have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5.

Chicago White Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L0–2ATLHome
L3–4CHCAway
W3–0CHCAway
L5–7CHCAway
W7–5DETAway
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2SDHome
L2–5SDHome
W2–1SDHome
W4–3WSHHome
W5–4WSHHome

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago White Sox
PlayerStatus
Davis Martin SPOUT
Kyle Teel COUT
Drew Thorpe SPOUT
Joey Bart COUT
Chris Murphy RPOUT
Jordan Leasure RPOUT
Prelander Berroa RPOUT
Ky Bush SPOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox — where the money went

Since betting opened on New York Mets at Chicago White Sox, the market has moved away from Chicago White Sox across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Spread — Chicago White Sox -1▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — New York Mets 1▲ Money came for this
Spread — Chicago White Sox -1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — New York Mets 1.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Over 8▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Under 8▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 7.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 7.5▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox — model preview

Our New York Mets at Chicago White Sox prediction for August 22, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 22, 2026 our model has run New York Mets at Chicago White Sox and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Brenton Doyle (COL) Under 0.5 RBIs (-370), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Sox, or as Sox vs Mets. The next scheduled game is Saturday 22 August 2026 at Guaranteed Rate Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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