On Thursday 13 August 2026, Hawthorn Hawks play Collingwood Magpies in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies: Under 23.5 team_totals_q1, priced at -115 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies: Under 23.5 team_totals_q1 (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into why the under 23.5 in the Team Totals Q1 market for the Hawthorn Hawks taking on the Collingwood Magpies is looking like a savvy play. Hawthorn Hawks have been a force at home, averaging 95 points in their last five games at the MCG. However, facing Collingwood's solid defense, allowing just 88.4 points on the road, could slow down their scoring pace. Moreover, the Magpies have been stingy overall, conceding only 84 points on average across their recent matches. With Hawthorn averaging 30.2 shots at goal but facing a disciplined Collingwood backline, hitting the over 23.5 in the first quarter might be a tough ask. Combine that with the pressure of a big occasion at the MCG, and the under is looking like a smart bet here.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies: Collingwood Magpies 5.5 spreads_q2 (-122)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into this intriguing clash between the Hawthorn Hawks and the Collingwood Magpies at the iconic MCG. Recent form paints a vivid picture here. The Hawks, boasting a solid average of 95 points for in their last five games, face the Magpies who have been no slouches either, notching up an impressive 96.2 points per game. When it comes to defending home turf, Hawthorn has been dominant, with an average margin of 15.4 points. However, Collingwood's away resilience can't be overlooked, holding their opponents to 88.4 points. The Magpies' ability to hit the scoreboard and keep games tight on the road suggests they could cover the modest 5.5-point spread. With both teams hungry for a win, expect a fierce battle with the Magpies making a solid case to snag this one.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies: Hawthorn Hawks -19.5 (-110)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright footy fans, let's dive into this juicy matchup between the Hawthorn Hawks and the Collingwood Magpies at the iconic MCG. The Hawks have been soaring high lately, especially at home, where they've been putting on a clinic. Over their last five home games, they've been flexing their scoring muscles, averaging a solid 95 points for and conceding just 79.6 points against. Their inside 50s and shots at goal numbers speak volumes about their attacking prowess, averaging 62.8 and 30.2 respectively. On the flip side, the Magpies have been a bit shaky on the road, with an average margin of just 7.8 in their last five away games. Their defense has been leaky, giving up 88.4 points per game away from home. With the Hawks looking sharp and the Magpies struggling to contain opponents, backing Hawthorn to cover the spread of -19.5 seems like a savvy play here.
That is how our model reads Hawthorn Hawks v Collingwood Magpies. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article