Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Picks: Odds Analysis & Top Props

Fremantle Dockers get more chances to score than the Brisbane Lions, averaging almost 7 more inside 50s per game in their last ten outings. They also win the hit-out count by a solid margin, which means they often have the ball first at stoppages. That gives them a good chance to make plays and keep up with Brisbane. However, Fremantle struggles with contested ball, losing those battles by about 3 per game. This matchup feels pretty even overall, like a coin flip, so taking Fremantle Dockers with a small head start of +6.5 points seems smart. The game could be very close, but Fremantle has some advantages playing at home.

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Under 182.5 Total Points (-110)

Fremantle and Brisbane Lions are both solid teams, but they have some trouble scoring lately. Fremantle gets the ball inside 50 often, but they also lose the contested ball, which could mean fewer chances to score. Meanwhile, Brisbane has been facing tough opponents, and their games tend to be lower-scoring as well. We're picking under 182.5 total points for this match because both teams have shown they can struggle to find the net. Our numbers suggest a combined score around 174.2, which leaves us feeling confident about this bet. The biggest risk is that both teams could surprise us and have a better offensive day than expected.

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Over 21.5 Team Total Points Q1 (-109)

Fremantle has been getting the ball inside their attacking zone about 6.7 more times than Brisbane in their last ten games. This suggests they will create plenty of scoring chances early on. The Dockers also have a solid ruck advantage, winning the hit-out count by over ten taps per game, which could help them control the ball in the opening quarter. Brisbane, on the other hand, has been tough against strong teams, but they struggle to win the ball in contested situations. They are losing contested possessions by about three each game lately. With Fremantle's ability to score early and the potential for a high-paced start, betting on them to score over 21.5 points in the first quarter looks promising. The main risk here is how evenly matched these teams can be at times.

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Alex Pearce Over 8.5 Disposals (-110)

Fremantle has been getting the ball into their forward 50 more often than Brisbane in recent matches, which could give Alex Pearce plenty of opportunities to rack up disposals. He's in a good spot to take advantage of that, especially since Fremantle's rucks have been winning the hit-out count by a wide margin. This means more chances for Pearce to get the ball. However, Fremantle does struggle with contested possessions, losing that battle by a small margin in their last games. This could make it tougher for Pearce to find the ball if the Lions apply pressure. Still, with the way things are shaping up, it feels like there's a good chance he goes over 8.5 disposals in this matchup.

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Conor McKenna Over 0.5 Goals (-112)

The odds for Conor McKenna to score over 0.5 goals are looking pretty solid at -112. Our numbers give this a good chance because Fremantle has been letting opponents get inside their 50 a lot more than they have been able to, making it easier for players like McKenna to have scoring opportunities. He's got the ability to take advantage of the space, especially since Fremantle has struggled a bit with contested possessions. One risk to keep in mind is that Fremantle's rucks have been winning the hit-out count quite comfortably. If they can keep possession, it might limit McKenna's chances. Still, with the way the teams are matched up, he has a decent shot to find the scoreboard.

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Jordan Clark Over 20.5 Disposals (-115)

The odds for Jordan Clark to have over 20.5 disposals look promising. Fremantle has been getting the ball inside 50 more often than Brisbane, which means Clark should have plenty of chances to get his hands on the ball. Plus, Fremantle's rucks are winning the hit-out count by a solid margin, giving Clark more opportunities to receive the ball from the midfield. One risk here is that Fremantle has been losing contested ball on average, which might limit how much they control the game. Still, with their current form and Clark's role, a good chance lies in his ability to reach that disposals mark. It's a bet worth considering for this matchup.

That is everything our model likes in this game. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.