On September 26, 2026 our model has run Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Fremantle Dockers +5.5 Spread (-111), which we rate lean confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.
Every bet we like in this game
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers are playing at home, and they have a decent chance to keep it close against Brisbane Lions. The model rates this matchup very tight, almost like a coin flip, which shows both teams can perform well. With the Dockers only needing to lose by less than six points, that makes this an interesting bet. One thing to consider is that the Lions have a 12-point advantage in ladder points, which means they've been doing better overall. Still, Fremantle is at home, and they can put up a good fight. So, while there's a risk that Brisbane might pull ahead, taking Fremantle +5.5 could be a smart move for this game.
Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Under 46.5 Total Points Q4 (-111)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers face Brisbane Lions, and this matchup could be a tough one for scoring in the final quarter. Both teams are closely matched, but Fremantle has had a few less rest days compared to Brisbane, which might make it harder for them to keep the pace. Our numbers suggest that the combined score in the last quarter will be around 41.5 points, so betting on under 46.5 points seems like a smart move. While it's possible for either team to surprise us, the risk here is that both sides are fighting for important ladder points. With a 12-point difference in ladder standings, this game could be tightly contested, leading to a lower scoring finish. Keep an eye on how the game unfolds, but this bet has a good chance to hit based on what we see.
Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Under 47.5 Team Total Points H1 (-112)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers and Brisbane Lions are both looking to score big, but our numbers suggest the first half might be a bit quieter. The expected combined score is around 44 points, which is less than the 47.5 line set for the bet. With Fremantle having six fewer days of rest than Brisbane, they might start off slow, affecting their scoring. Both teams are also separated by 12 points in the ladder, indicating they're pretty evenly matched. While this means anything is possible, the close nature of the matchup could lead to a lower scoring game than expected. Taking the under on total points in the first half seems like a smart choice.
Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Oscar McDonald Over 10.5 Disposals (-118)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
For Oscar McDonald to get over 10.5 disposals tonight, he just needs to be active with the ball. Our numbers show he has a good chance of hitting this mark, especially with Fremantle facing Brisbane. The Lions are tough but can leave gaps, and McDonald has shown he can take advantage when the opportunity arises. One risk to consider is that Fremantle isn't known for making clearances, which could limit McDonald's chances to rack up disposals. Despite that, he's been involved in plays often enough to believe he can reach the target. Overall, this looks like a solid pick for tonight's game.
Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Conor McKenna Over 0.5 Goals (-120)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
The bet of over 0.5 goals for Conor McKenna at odds of -120 looks appealing. Our numbers show that he has been really active, with an impressive goal accuracy of 90, which is way above the typical mark. He also has a solid chance of getting at least a goal, especially since he's been averaging 2 goal assists and is expected to be in scoring situations. One risk to keep in mind is how closely matched the Fremantle Dockers and Brisbane Lions can be, which might affect scoring opportunities. However, with McKenna's strong recent performance, he seems likely to find the net at least once in this game.
Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Jaspa Fletcher Over 16.5 Disposals (-120)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Jaspa Fletcher has been making a real impact on the field for the Brisbane Lions, and he's likely to rack up a good number of disposals against the Fremantle Dockers. Our numbers show he's got a good chance to go over 16.5 disposals, especially since he's been involved in a lot of plays lately. His ability to get clearances and shots at goal makes him a key player to watch. The only concern here is that both teams are pretty close in skill, which might limit some opportunities. Still, Fletcher's recent performances suggest he can step up when it counts. Betting on him to go over 16.5 disposals seems like a smart move for this game at the MCG.
That is the full board for this game. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.
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