On Thursday 6 August 2026, Brisbane Lions play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals, priced at -500 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a sharpshooter like Jack Gunston to snag over 1.5 goals in the upcoming clash against the Brisbane Lions, the numbers are singing a sweet tune. Gunston has been on a tear lately, averaging a solid 3 goals per game in his last five away matches. His accuracy is on point, hitting the target nearly half the time, while his involvement in setting up plays is a testament to his impact on the field. With an average of 5.8 shots on goal per game and a knack for finding the big sticks consistently, Gunston is poised to make his mark in this showdown. Despite facing a tough opponent, his recent form and scoring prowess make him a strong bet to light up the scoreboard. So, if you're looking for a player with the potential to split the middle and secure those crucial goals, Gunston is your man for this wager.

Mabior Chol (Hawthorn) Over 0.5 Goals (-556)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the AFL, Mabior Chol from the Hawthorn Hawks is looking like a prime pick for Friday's clash against the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba. Chol has been a scoring machine lately, averaging 1.4 goals in his last five away games. His accuracy in front of the big sticks sits at a respectable 47.9%, showing he knows how to make his shots count. With an average of 3.8 shots at goal per game and 6.4 score involvements, Chol is a key figure in the Hawks' attacking plays. Plus, his recent form against the Lions has seen him notch an impressive 2.5 goals per game. With a solid hit streak of 7 away and 10 overall, Chol is in red-hot form and is poised to continue his scoring spree. Betting on him to score over 0.5 goals seems like a smart play given his recent performances and consistent goal-scoring ability.

Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) Over 20.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's dive into why Jai Newcombe is primed to surpass that 20.5 disposal mark against the Brisbane Lions this Friday. Buckle up for this one. In his last five away games, Newcombe has been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 23.4 disposals, including 14.2 handballs and 9.2 kicks. With an eye-catching 75.9% disposal efficiency and a knack for covering ground (318.8 metres gained on average), he's a possession magnet. Facing the Lions, Jai has historically feasted on the ball, averaging 24.8 disposals in his last five matchups against them. Overall, he's been solid with 25.2 disposals per game recently. With the Gabba as the battleground, Newcombe will be eager to make his mark and continue his streak of two consecutive hits. Bank on him to hit that 20.5 disposals line and then some. Jai's set to snag a healthy dose of possessions and help your bet split the middle.

That is how our model reads Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn Hawks. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Unlock all picks