On Wednesday 5 August 2026, Brisbane Lions play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals, priced at -476 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals (-476)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jack Gunston is in red-hot form, averaging an impressive 3 goals in his last 5 away games. Facing the Brisbane Lions, a team he typically performs well against, with an average of 2 goals per game in their recent encounters, Gunston is poised to continue his scoring streak. His accuracy, with a 46.1% goal accuracy rate on average, combined with his ability to get involved in the play with 6.8 score involvements per game, makes him a potent attacking threat. With a Shots at Goal average of 5.8, Gunston consistently creates opportunities to snag a goal. Despite the line being set at 1.5, the data suggests Gunston is primed to bag a couple of goals and lead Hawthorn's charge in this matchup. Trust Gunston to split the middle and deliver for your Player Goals Over bet.

Mabior Chol (Hawthorn) Over 0.5 Goals (-556)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Mabior Chol is the man to watch as the Hawthorn Hawks take on the Brisbane Lions. Chol has been on fire lately, averaging 1.4 goals in his last 5 away games, with a solid goal accuracy of nearly 48%. His involvement in the attacking play is evident, as he averages 3.8 shots at goal and 6.4 score involvements per game on the road. Facing the Lions, Chol has historically performed even better, averaging 2.5 goals in his last 5 matchups against them. With an impressive streak of 7 consecutive games with at least one goal and a perfect 10/10 hit rate in his last 10 games overall, Chol is in prime form to split the middle and help you cash in on an Over 0.5 goals bet.

Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) Over 20.5 Disposals (-625)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to go over 20.5 disposals, Jai Newcombe is the man to watch in the upcoming clash between Hawthorn Hawks and Brisbane Lions at the Gabba. Newcombe has been a consistent performer, averaging 23.4 disposals in his last five away games, with a solid disposal efficiency of 75.9%. His recent form against Brisbane has also been strong, averaging 23 disposals in their last five encounters. With an overall average of 25.2 disposals and a current hit streak of 2 games, Newcombe is in prime position to snag plenty of possessions in this game. His ability to win contested possessions (13.4 avg) and cover ground (388 metres gained avg) make him a reliable bet to surpass the 20.5 disposals line. Trust in Newcombe to split the middle and deliver on the disposal front.

That is how our model reads Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn Hawks. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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