On Friday 7 August 2026, Brisbane Lions play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals, priced at -526 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals (-526)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's talk Jack Gunston for this Friday's showdown between the Hawks and Lions at the Gabba. Gunston has been on fire lately, averaging a tidy 3 goals over his last 5 away games. Facing the Lions, he's been even more lethal, notching 2 goals per game in their last encounters. His accurate boot, hovering around 46%, coupled with his ability to get into dangerous positions inside 50 (3.4 marks on average), makes him a genuine scoring threat. With Gunston's recent form and history against the Lions, the Over 1.5 goals line looks like a juicy bet. He's riding a hot streak, hitting the back of the net in 2 out of his last 3 games overall, showing he's in fine touch. So, expect Gunston to snag a couple and help you snag a win on this player prop.
Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's dive into why Jai Newcombe is primed to go over 19.5 disposals in the upcoming clash between the Hawthorn Hawks and the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba. Newcombe has been a shining light in the Hawks' midfield, averaging a solid 23.4 disposals in his last five away games. His ability to find the footy in traffic, evident from his 11.6 contested possessions per game, gives him the edge against the Lions. Moreover, Newcombe's recent form against the Lions and overall season averages of 25.2 disposals further reinforce his capability to surpass the 19.5 line. With an impressive 75.9% disposal efficiency and an average of 318.8 meters gained in his away games, Newcombe's impact across the ground makes him a favorable pick for this bet. Don't miss out on backing this rising star to shine brightly in Brisbane.
Mabior Chol (Hawthorn) Over 0.5 Goals (-588)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the AFL, Mabior Chol stands out like a beacon in the night sky. The Hawthorn Hawks' power forward has been a scoring machine lately, averaging a hefty 1.4 goals in his last five away games. Chol's accuracy in front of the big sticks is impressive, hovering around 47.9%, indicating his ability to convert opportunities into goals consistently. Moreover, his recent form against the upcoming opponent, the Brisbane Lions, is even more compelling, with an average of 2.5 goals per game. Chol's involvement in setting up attacking plays is evident from his 6.4 score involvements per match. With a stellar hit streak of 7 away games and 10 overall, Chol is primed to split the middle and help you cash in on the Over 0.5 goals player prop bet. Trust in Chol to deliver the goods at the Gabba!
That is how our model reads Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn Hawks. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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