Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Picks: Odds Analysis & Top Props

On Friday 31 July 2026, Brisbane Lions play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks: Brisbane Lions Win, priced at -185 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks: Brisbane Lions Win (-185)

The Brisbane Lions are roaring with confidence as they prepare to face the Hawthorn Hawks at the Gabba. In their last five home games, the Lions have been a force to be reckoned with, boasting an impressive average margin of 26.2 points and a solid defensive record, allowing just 82.8 points against on average. With dominant stats like an average of 42.8 total clearances and 129.4 contested possessions per game in their home fixtures, the Lions have shown their prowess in controlling the midfield battles. Meanwhile, Hawthorn has struggled on the road, conceding an average of 32.6 points and lacking in clearances and contested possessions compared to the Lions. Backed by their home advantage and recent form, the Lions look primed to secure the win and cover the spread.

That is how our model reads Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn Hawks. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.