Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Picks: Expert Footy Betting Guide

On Saturday 1 August 2026, Brisbane Lions play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks: Brisbane Lions Win, priced at -185 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks: Brisbane Lions Win (-185)

When it comes to Friday night footy at the Gabba, the Brisbane Lions are proving to be a force to be reckoned with. Over their last five home games, the Lions have been dominating with an average margin of 26.2 points and an impressive average of 109 points for per game. Their midfield is firing on all cylinders, leading in contested possessions and clearances, setting up numerous scoring opportunities with an average of 61.8 inside 50s. On the defensive end, they are solid, allowing just 82.8 points against on average. On the flip side, the Hawthorn Hawks have struggled on the road, averaging a margin of 32.6 points against in their last five away games. Their midfield is being outmatched by the Lions, especially in clearances and contested possessions. With the Lions' strong recent form at home and the Hawks' road woes, backing the Brisbane Lions to snag the win in the head-to-head market is a smart play for this matchup.

That is how our model reads Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn Hawks. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.