TreVeyon Henderson (NE) Over 14.5 Player rush yds alternate (-833)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on TreVeyon Henderson to rush over 14.5 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers is backed by promising statistical trends. Although his recent performance shows an overall hit rate of just 1/5 in the last five games, he has a strong track record against Pittsburgh, going 1/1 in both his last five and last ten home matchups against them. Furthermore, Henderson's home hit rate spikes to 2/5, and he has maintained a solid overall hit rate of 14/21 throughout his career, indicating reliable performance when healthy. Against the Steelers, he has consistently succeeded, with a 100% hit rate in their previous matchups, suggesting favorable match conditions. This statistical edge, combined with the model's slight positive edge (0.046), supports the bet on the Over for Henderson's rushing yards. Given these factors, he stands a good chance to surpass the 14.5-yard mark this game.

Keon Coleman (BUF) Under 1.5 Receptions (-213)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Keon Coleman to record Under 1.5 receptions against the Detroit Lions is supported by several statistical trends. Despite a recent hit streak of 3 for 3 overall, Coleman has failed to register a reception in his last three home games, indicating a significant struggle to perform in Buffalo. His home hit rate over the last 5 games is 0/5, showcasing a clear trend of underperformance on home turf. Additionally, while he has a perfect record (1/1) against the Lions, this is based on limited data and does not reflect consistency. Over the last 10 games, Coleman has only hit this mark 3 times, and his overall hit rate is just 12/31. The model edge of 0.18 reinforces the likelihood of staying under this low reception threshold. Given these factors, betting on Under 1.5 receptions is statistically justified.

Tyquan Thornton (KC) Under 1.5 Receptions (-222)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Tyquan Thornton to go Under 1.5 receptions against the Indianapolis Colts is supported by several statistical trends. In his last 5 games, Thornton has hit this mark in only 3 instances, indicating a 60% overall hit rate, but more notably, he has only managed to exceed 1.5 receptions in 1 of his last 3 games against the Colts, which suggests limited target volume in this matchup. Additionally, his current home hit rate mirrors this trend, standing at 1/3 in the last few games played at home. While his recent performance shows he has hit the mark in 6 of the last 10 games overall, his specific track record against the Colts (1/1 at home) does not provide a strong enough case for optimism. Given these factors and a model edge of 0.17, betting the Under appears statistically sound.

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