Here are our AFL picks for Wednesday 5 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals, priced at -476 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals (-476)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jack Gunston is in red-hot form, averaging an impressive 3 goals in his last 5 away games. Facing the Brisbane Lions, a team he typically performs well against, with an average of 2 goals per game in their recent encounters, Gunston is poised to continue his scoring streak. His accuracy, with a 46.1% goal accuracy rate on average, combined with his ability to get involved in the play with 6.8 score involvements per game, makes him a potent attacking threat. With a Shots at Goal average of 5.8, Gunston consistently creates opportunities to snag a goal. Despite the line being set at 1.5, the data suggests Gunston is primed to bag a couple of goals and lead Hawthorn's charge in this matchup. Trust Gunston to split the middle and deliver for your Player Goals Over bet.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's dive into why Matthew Kennedy is a prime target for the Over 14.5 disposals line when the Western Bulldogs clash with North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium. Kennedy has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 22.6 disposals over his last five home games, with a knack for racking up 13.2 kicks and 9.4 handballs per match. Against North Melbourne, he's been even more prolific, averaging 18.5 disposals in their last five encounters. With an impressive contested possession average of 9 and stellar disposal efficiency of 60.9%, Kennedy is in prime form to dominate the Kangaroos in front of the home crowd. Backed by his recent consistency and strong matchup history, Kennedy looks primed to surpass the 14.5 mark and make a significant impact in the midfield battle.
Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 20.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Archie Roberts hitting the Over 20.5 disposals mark against the Cats, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 24 disposals. Facing Geelong, he's even more potent, averaging 33 disposals in their last encounters. Roberts' recent form is red-hot, boasting a 79.8% disposal efficiency and gaining an impressive 446.2 meters on average per game. With his current hit streak and consistency, backing Roberts to eclipse 20.5 disposals feels like a smart play. Expect him to be a pivotal figure in Essendon's midfield battle at GMHBA Stadium, racking up possessions like a seasoned pro.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Noah Anderson is primed to shine for the Gold Coast Suns when they face off against the Greater Western Sydney Giants. Over his last five away games, Anderson has been a midfield maestro, consistently racking up an average of 29.6 disposals, well above the line of 22.5 set for this game. His ability to find the footy and drive his team forward is evident in his impressive average of 564 meters gained per game. Additionally, his recent form against the Giants has been stellar, averaging 28.2 disposals in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 6 in away games, Anderson is in a rich vein of form that makes the over 22.5 disposals a compelling bet. Expect him to dominate the contest and comfortably surpass this line.
Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-556)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Brodie Kemp from the Carlton Blues is looking like a prime candidate for an 'Over 0.5 Goals' bet against St Kilda. In his last five away games, Kemp has been on a scoring spree, averaging a solid 1.6 goals per match. His accuracy in front of the big sticks has been impressive at 55.0%, meaning he's making those opportunities count. With an average of 3.6 shots on goal per game and 5.8 score involvements, Kemp is actively involved in creating scoring chances. Additionally, his recent form against St Kilda has seen him bagging at least one goal per game. Riding a current hit streak of five games away and a solid overall hit rate, Kemp is poised to continue his scoring ways in this matchup. Betting on him to split the middle looks like a savvy move for this clash at Marvel Stadium.
Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 15.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to consistency and impact from the backline, look no further than Jayden Short. The Richmond Tigers' lynchpin has been a shining light in recent away fixtures, averaging a hefty 22.4 disposals over his last five on the road. Short's ability to read the play and generate offensive thrust is unparalleled, evident in his impressive 386.8 meters gained per game. Against the Adelaide Crows, he's been even more prolific, boasting a solid 23 disposals on average in their recent encounters. With a current hit streak of 9 on away turf and 19 overall, Short is in red-hot form. Expect him to control the tempo and surpass the 15.5 disposal line set by sportsbet with ease this weekend at the Adelaide Oval.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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