Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 6 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals, priced at -500 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals (-500)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a sharpshooter like Jack Gunston to snag over 1.5 goals in the upcoming clash against the Brisbane Lions, the numbers are singing a sweet tune. Gunston has been on a tear lately, averaging a solid 3 goals per game in his last five away matches. His accuracy is on point, hitting the target nearly half the time, while his involvement in setting up plays is a testament to his impact on the field. With an average of 5.8 shots on goal per game and a knack for finding the big sticks consistently, Gunston is poised to make his mark in this showdown. Despite facing a tough opponent, his recent form and scoring prowess make him a strong bet to light up the scoreboard. So, if you're looking for a player with the potential to split the middle and secure those crucial goals, Gunston is your man for this wager.
Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 20.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to AFL betting, it's all about finding that edge, that player who's primed to shine amidst the on-field chaos. Enter Archie Roberts, the midfield maestro for the Essendon Bombers. His recent form is nothing short of stellar, averaging a cool 24 disposals in his last five away games. Facing off against Geelong, a team he's historically dominated with an average of 33 possessions in their last encounters, the stage is set for Roberts to feast on the contested possessions and split the defense with his kicks. With a current hit streak of 4 and a solid 88.5% implied probability to surpass the 20.5 disposal mark, betting on Roberts to go over feels like a no-brainer. So, get ready to watch him work his magic and rack up those disposals in style at GMHBA Stadium.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Noah Anderson is gearing up to make waves in Canberra as the Gold Coast Suns take on the Greater Western Sydney Giants. Anderson has been an absolute ball magnet lately, averaging a whopping 29.6 disposals in his last five away games. His precision is on point, boasting a slick 65.8% disposal efficiency. Plus, he's been showing off his versatility with an average of 18.6 kicks and 11 handballs per game. Facing the Giants, he's historically been even more prolific, averaging 28.2 disposals in their last encounters. With a model-predicted 31.4 disposals and a solid 6-game hit streak on the road, Anderson is primed to eclipse the 22.5 disposal line set by sportsbet. Backing Anderson to go over 22.5 disposals is a smart play given his recent form and historical performance against the Giants.
Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-556)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Brodie Kemp of the Carlton Blues stands out as a solid choice. Over his last 5 away games, Kemp has been a consistent goal scorer, averaging 1.6 goals per game. His sharpshooting ability is evident with a 55.0% goal accuracy, showcasing his efficiency in front of the big sticks. Additionally, his involvement in the forward line is significant, averaging 3.2 marks inside 50 and 5.8 score involvements per game on the road. Facing St Kilda, a team he has historically performed well against, Kemp's current form and scoring streak make him a compelling option to back for Over 0.5 goals in this matchup at Marvel Stadium.
Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 15.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to reliable ball handling and defensive prowess, Jayden Short of the Richmond Tigers stands out as a key player to watch. With a recent average of 22.4 disposals in away games, Short's consistency in finding the footy is undeniable. His efficiency, currently at 88.2%, showcases his ability to make those possessions count. Facing off against the Adelaide Crows, Short has historically performed well, averaging 23 disposals in their last five encounters. His knack for intercepting plays (4.2 per game) and gaining crucial metres (386.8 on average) make him a linchpin in Richmond's strategy. Moreover, Short's stellar hit rate of 9/9 in away games and 19/19 overall further solidify his reliability. With a model prediction of 24 disposals, taking the Over on his 15.5 disposals line seems like a prudent bet for punters looking to ride Short's hot streak and impactful presence on the field.
Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) Over 17.5 Disposals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to a reliable midfield performance, Hugo Garcia is the man to watch for the St Kilda Saints against the Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium. With a solid 25.8 disposals average over his last five home games, Garcia has been a consistent ball magnet, showcasing his ability to impact the game both in contested situations and through efficient ball use. His recent 4-game hit streak at home highlights his current form and comfort playing in front of the home crowd. Facing off against Carlton, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 12.3 disposals in their last five encounters, Garcia is poised to dominate the midfield once again. With his model predicting 25.8 disposals and a 7.6% edge in his favor, backing Garcia to surpass 17.5 disposals seems like a smart move for this upcoming clash.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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