Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 30 July 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Noah Anderson (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 21.5 Disposals, priced at -769 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Noah Anderson (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 21.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Noah Anderson, the Suns' midfield maestro, is poised to dominate the possession battle against the Demons at People First Stadium. In his last five home games, Anderson has been a ball magnet, averaging a whopping 28.8 disposals per game, with a stellar disposal efficiency of 76.7%. His ability to find space and move the ball effectively is unmatched, as seen in his 15.8 kicks and 13 handballs per game. With recent trends showing an average of 29 disposals against this opponent, Anderson's current form and consistency make him a reliable bet to surpass the 21.5 disposal mark. Back Anderson to showcase his on-field prowess and rack up the possessions to help drive the Suns to victory.
Nick Daicos (Collingwood) Over 23.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to dependable midfielders, look no further than Nick Daicos of the Collingwood Magpies. Set to showcase his skills at the iconic MCG against the Geelong Cats, Daicos has been a beacon of consistency in his last five home games, averaging a whopping 35.4 disposals. His ability to find the footy in contested situations, coupled with an impressive disposal efficiency of 78.3%, sets him apart as a key playmaker. Facing off against the Cats, Daicos has historically performed well, averaging 28.7 disposals in his last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 14 at home and 30 overall, Daicos is in fine form to surpass the 23.5 disposals line. Expect him to once again lead the charge and rack up the possessions as he guides the Magpies to victory.
Will Setterfield (Essendon) Over 14.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player prop bet in the AFL, you want someone who's not just reliable but consistently impactful. That's where Will Setterfield steps into the spotlight for the Essendon Bombers at Marvel Stadium against the Adelaide Crows. Setterfield's recent form at home is nothing short of impressive, averaging 21.6 disposals over his last five games, well above the line of 14.5. His ability to find the footy with 12.2 kicks and 9.4 handballs per game showcases his versatility and involvement in Essendon's midfield battles. With a disposal efficiency of 67.6% and 320.4 metres gained on average, Setterfield isn't just accumulating possessions; he's making them count. Considering his stellar form, high hit rates, and the strong model edge supporting him to hit over 14.5 disposals, backing Setterfield to shine in this match seems like a smart play.
Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-333)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Looking at Brodie Kemp's recent form, it's clear he's been building momentum playing in front of the home crowd. In his last 5 home games, Kemp has been getting involved in the action, averaging 1 shot at goal per game and showcasing his goal sense by bagging an average of 0.6 goals. While his accuracy could be sharper, at 30%, his ability to create scoring opportunities with 1.4 marks inside 50 and 4.6 score involvements per game is impressive. Facing the Brisbane Lions, against whom he has averaged 0 goals in their last 5 encounters, Kemp is due for a breakthrough performance. With a strong hit rate in home games and the potential to impact the scoreboard, backing Kemp to snag over 0.5 goals seems like a smart play in this matchup at Marvel Stadium.
Joel Jeffrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 11.5 Disposals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Joel Jeffrey, it's all about consistency and impact. Over his last five home games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 16.8 disposals per match with a high disposalefficiency of 81.7%. Facing Melbourne, he's even more motivated, with an average of 13.8 disposals against them. Jeffrey isn't just a ball magnet; he's a playmaker, racking up 12.8 kicks and 4 handballs on average in his recent home games. His ability to gain crucial metres (433.6 avg) and make game-changing intercepts (2.8 avg) showcases his value to the Suns. With a line set at 11.5 disposals, the smart money is on Jeffrey snagging more possessions than that, given his recent form and hunger for a big game against a tough opponent like Melbourne.
Liam Ryan (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in Aussie Rules, Liam Ryan is a standout choice for the St Kilda Saints against the Sydney Swans. Ryan has been on a scoring tear lately, averaging a whopping 2.8 goals per game in his last five home matches. His sharpshooting accuracy of 55.3% and strong involvement in the Saints' forward line make him a constant threat to split the middle. Facing the Swans, whom he has historically netted an average of 1.5 goals against in their encounters, Ryan's form is red hot. With a current hit streak of 8 at home and 4 overall, Ryan is primed to keep the goals flowing. The model's prediction of 1.8 goals gives us solid backing to confidently bet on Ryan to score over 0.5 goals in this clash at Marvel Stadium.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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