Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 30 July 2026. Our model likes 7 bets here. The one it likes most is Noah Anderson (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 21.5 Disposals, priced at -769 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Noah Anderson (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 21.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to locking in a solid AFL player props bet, Noah Anderson stands out like a specky grab in the goal square. The young gun has been on an absolute tear, consistently racking up disposals like it's second nature. With a model prediction of 31.4 disposals, Anderson's recent form at People First Stadium has been nothing short of impressive. Averaging 28.8 disposals in his last 5 home games, he's been a midfield maestro, dominating the contested possessions and showcasing his elite disposal efficiency at 76.7%. Against Melbourne, a team he's historically performed well against, averaging 30.8 disposals in their last 5 encounters, Anderson is poised to make the footy talk with his on-field prowess. Backing him to go Over 21.5 disposals is as safe as a mark in front of goal.
Nick Daicos (Collingwood) Over 23.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to dependable midfielders, Nick Daicos of the Collingwood Magpies stands out like a true footy maestro. Daicos has been a revelation in his recent home games, averaging a whopping 35.4 disposals per match, showcasing his ability to dominate the contest. In his last five home games, Daicos has been a beacon of consistency, hitting an average of 20 kicks and 15.4 handballs per game, demonstrating his dual threat in distributing the ball. With a disposal efficiency of 78.3% and an impressive 531.8 meters gained on average, Daicos doesn't just rack up numbers; he maximizes his impact with precision and efficiency. Facing the Geelong Cats, a team he has historically performed well against, averaging 28.7 disposals in their last five encounters, Daicos is poised to continue his stellar form. With an edge percentage of 9.0% in our model's prediction, backing Daicos to surpass 23.5 disposals at the MCG is a bet that carries a high probability of hitting paydirt.
Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 20.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player prop bet in the AFL, it's all about finding that perfect blend of form, matchup, and opportunity. And this week, all signs point to Archie Roberts snagging a big game for the Essendon Bombers against the Adelaide Crows. Roberts has been on a tear lately, averaging a whopping 29.6 disposals in his last five home games. With his contested possessions on the rise and a stellar disposal efficiency of 77.9%, he's been a force to be reckoned with in the midfield. Facing off against the Crows, who he's previously averaged 19 disposals against, Roberts is primed to exceed the 20.5 line set by the bookies. With a current hit streak of 2 at home and 3 overall, Roberts is in the form of his life. Bet on him to split the middle and deliver big on the disposal front come game day at Marvel Stadium.
Will Setterfield (Essendon) Over 14.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player prop bet in the AFL, you want a reliable contributor who consistently delivers on the field. Cue Will Setterfield, the Essendon Bombers' midfield maestro who's been on a tear lately. His last five home games have been a masterclass in ball-winning, averaging a whopping 21.6 disposals per outing. Facing the Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium, Setterfield's recent form suggests he's primed to surpass the 14.5 disposals line comfortably. With a stellar contested possession average of 7.2 and a penchant for racking up kicks (12.2 per game), Setterfield is a key cog in Essendon's engine room. Add in his impressive disposal efficiency of 67.6% and it's clear why the smart money is on him to eclipse 14.5 disposals. Ride the hot hand and watch Setterfield pile on the possessions in this Sunday showdown.
Joel Jeffrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 11.5 Disposals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's dive into why Joel Jeffrey is a prime pick for the 'Over 11.5 Disposals' bet when the Gold Coast Suns take on the Melbourne Demons. Joel's recent form at home has been solid, averaging 16.8 disposals over his last five games, comfortably exceeding the 11.5 line. His ability to cover ground is evident with an average of 433.6 meters gained per game, showcasing his impact on the field. Facing Melbourne, he's been even better, averaging 13.8 disposals against them. With a strong work rate reflected in his 3 contested possessions per game, Joel is poised to snag more than 11.5 disposals on the home turf at People First Stadium. Trust in Joel to split the middle and deliver on the disposal count.
Liam Ryan (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Liam Ryan is the man to watch in the upcoming clash between St Kilda Saints and Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium. Over his last five home games, Ryan has been on fire, averaging an impressive 2.8 goals. What's more, he's been incredibly accurate in front of the big sticks, boasting a goal accuracy of 55.3%. With an average of 4.4 shots at goal per game, Ryan is constantly in the goal-scoring mix, making him a potent threat. Facing off against the Swans, against whom he's averaged 1.5 goals in his last five home games, Ryan is in prime position to continue his scoring streak. With his current form and consistency, taking the Over 0.5 goals for Liam Ryan is a smart bet with a high probability of hitting the mark.
Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 15.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Daniel Rioli, the dynamic midfielder for the Gold Coast Suns, is poised to shine in the upcoming clash against the Melbourne Demons at People First Stadium. Rioli's recent form is nothing short of stellar, averaging a whopping 22.2 disposals in his last five home games with an impressive 83.2% disposal efficiency. His ability to find space and create opportunities is evident, with a solid 13 kicks and 9.2 handballs per game on home turf. Against the Demons, Rioli has consistently delivered, averaging 19.8 disposals in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 4 at home and 2 overall, Rioli is primed to not only meet but exceed the 15.5 disposal line set by the bookmakers. Expect him to dominate the midfield and rack up the possessions as he leads the Suns to victory.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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