Here are our AFL picks for Sunday 9 August 2026. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Jy Farrar (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Goals, priced at -119 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jy Farrar (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Goals (-119)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jy Farrar has been quietly building momentum in the last few away games, averaging 0.6 goals with a solid 33.3% goal accuracy. His recent performance showcases his ability to impact the scoreboard, boasting an average of 2.8 score involvements per game. In a clash against the Greater Western Sydney Giants, who he's previously scored against, Farrar's poised to capitalize on his 1.4 shots at goal average. With a consistent L5 hit rate and a hunger to maintain his scoring streak, backing Farrar to snag at least one goal seems like a smart move. At odds of 1.84, the implied probability of 54.3% presents a tempting opportunity to ride Farrar's form and betting trends for a potential payout.

Mitch Owens (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mitch Owens, the dynamic forward for St Kilda Saints, is primed to light up Marvel Stadium against the Carlton Blues. Despite a recent dip in goal-scoring form, Owens' hunger to snag a goal is undeniable. Over his last five home games, he's been a constant threat inside 50, with an average of 3 inside 50s and 4.6 score involvements per game. Although he's only averaged 0.2 goals in these recent home matches, Owens has shown a solid goal accuracy of 20.0%. Facing Carlton, against whom he's averaged 0 goals in the last five matchups, Owens is due for a breakout performance. With an impressive 60.0% goal accuracy in his overall recent games and a consistent shot rate, backing Owens to score over 0.5 goals is a smart play for punters looking to capitalize on his scoring potential.

Jed Walter (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Goals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Jed Walter is a prime pick for the upcoming clash between the Gold Coast Suns and Greater Western Sydney Giants. Walter has been on fire lately, averaging an impressive 2.2 goals over his last five away games, showcasing a stellar 75.0% goal accuracy. His ability to impact the scoreboard is undeniable, with 4.4 score involvements per game and 3 shots at goal on average. Facing off against a team where he's previously averaged 0.3 goals, Walter is in a perfect position to continue his scoring streak. With a current hit streak of 5 away games and a stellar hit rate of 5/5, Walter is poised to split the middle and notch up another goal, making the over 0.5 goal line a solid bet for this dynamic forward.

That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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