Here are our AFL picks for Sunday 2 August 2026. Our model likes 7 bets here. The one it likes most is Noah Anderson (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 22.5 Disposals, priced at -714 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Noah Anderson (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 22.5 Disposals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Noah Anderson is primed to light up the stat sheet in this clash between Gold Coast and Melbourne at People First Stadium. Over his last five home games, Anderson has been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 28.8 disposals, well above the 22.5 line set for this contest. His precision with the ball, boasting a 76.7% disposal efficiency, ensures that he maximizes every possession. With impressive numbers like 13 handballs and 15.8 kicks per game in his recent home outings, Anderson is not only a ball magnet but also a key playmaker for the Suns. Facing Melbourne, against whom he's averaged 29 disposals in their last encounters, Anderson is set to dominate the midfield once again. Bet on Anderson to surpass 22.5 disposals and make a significant impact for the Suns.
Will Setterfield (Essendon) Over 14.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Essendon's clash with Adelaide, all eyes are on Will Setterfield. The dynamic midfielder has been a commanding force at Marvel Stadium, averaging a solid 21.6 disposals in his last five home games. With a keen eye for the contest, Setterfield's 7.2 contested possessions per game show his hunger in the thick of the action. Add in his impressive disposal efficiency of 67.6%, and you have a player who not only finds the ball but uses it effectively. Facing the Crows, against whom he averages 16 disposals, Setterfield is poised to shine. With a streak of 22 games hitting the mark at home, and an overall hit rate of 95% in his last 20, backing him to surpass 14.5 disposals is a smart move. Trust Setterfield to lead the charge and rack up the possessions on home turf.
Joel Jeffrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 11.5 Disposals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to putting your hard-earned on the line, Joel Jeffrey stands out as a prime pick for the 'Player Disposals Over' market against the Melbourne Demons. Jeffrey's recent form at People First Stadium has been nothing short of impressive, with an average of 16.8 disposals in his last five home games. Facing off against Melbourne, who have allowed him to average 13.8 disposals in their previous encounters, further boosts his chances. With a model predicting him to hit 19.8 disposals and a solid 81.7% disposal efficiency, Jeffrey is poised to shine. Add in his knack for gaining 433.6 meters on average and it's clear why the Over 11.5 line is looking like a safe bet with Jeffrey leading the charge at home.
Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 21.5 Disposals (-588)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to picking a player prop bet, Archie Roberts is our man for the Essendon Bombers in their clash against the Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium. Roberts has been a disposal machine, averaging a whopping 29.6 disposals over his last five home games. His kicking game has been on point too, averaging 20.8 kicks per game in that span. With a solid disposal efficiency of 77.9%, Roberts knows how to make his possessions count. Against the Crows, he has historically done even better, averaging 19 disposals in their recent matchups. Given his current form and the matchup dynamics, backing Roberts to surpass 21.5 disposals seems like a smart play. It's not just a hunch; it's backed by the numbers.
Mason Redman (Essendon) Over 12.5 Disposals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to pinpointing a solid bet for the Essendon Bombers clash against the Adelaide Crows, Mason Redman stands out as a prime candidate to shine on the field. Redman has been a force to reckon with, boasting an impressive average of 16.8 disposals over his last five home games. His ability to find space and rack up kicks, averaging 12.8 per game at Marvel Stadium, makes him a key playmaker for the Bombers. With a consistent disposal efficiency of 87.0% and a knack for gaining crucial meters, Redman is in prime form to surpass the 12.5 disposals line set by the bookies. His recent performances, combined with his stellar hit rates and streaks, make him a reliable choice to back for this player prop bet. Expect Redman to step up and deliver a standout performance on his home turf.
Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 16.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Folks, when it comes to backing a player to go big on disposals, Jayden Short is the man to watch when the Tigers clash with the Eagles at the MCG. Short's been a disposal magnet, averaging a solid 22.4 disposals in his last five home games, showing his class with a remarkable 80.7% disposal efficiency. Facing West Coast, he's been even sharper, averaging 20 disposals against them in his recent matchups. With his current form, Short's hitting his marks consistently, boasting a 9-game hit streak at home and a stellar 16 out of 18 overall hit rate. The model predicts him snagging 24 disposals, a figure well above the 16.5 line. So, expect Short to split the middle with ease and hit that over comfortably.
Jed Walter (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Goals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Jed Walter snagging a goal in the upcoming clash between Gold Coast Suns and Melbourne Demons, the stats paint a convincing picture. Walter has been a real threat in recent home games, averaging 1.6 goals with an impressive 55.0% goal accuracy. His involvement in the Suns' forward line is highlighted by his 1.4 Inside50s and 1.6 Marks inside 50 per game. With an average of 2.4 shots at goal, Walter isn't shy about taking his chances, and his recent 5-game goal streak at home speaks volumes about his current form. Facing Melbourne, against whom he has a solid 1-goal average in their last five encounters, Walter's odds to split the middle at least once look promising. Betting on Walter to score over 0.5 goals seems like a solid play given his recent performance and historical success against the Demons.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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