Here are our AFL picks for Saturday 1 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Noah Anderson (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 21.5 Disposals, priced at -769 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Noah Anderson (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 21.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to a sure bet on player disposals, Noah Anderson has been an absolute workhorse for the Gold Coast Suns, especially when playing at the People First Stadium. Over his last five home games, Anderson has been a disposal-gathering machine, averaging a whopping 28.8 disposals per game. With a keen eye for intercepts and a precise disposal efficiency of 76.7%, he consistently finds ways to impact the game positively. Facing Melbourne, a team he's historically performed well against, averaging 29 disposals over their last five encounters, Anderson is poised to continue his dominance. His current hot streak of hitting his disposal line in six consecutive home games and maintaining an overall hit rate of 3/3 further solidifies his status as a reliable pick for this bet. Expect Anderson to not only meet but exceed the 21.5 disposal line comfortably in this upcoming clash.
Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 20.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Looking ahead to the clash between Essendon and Adelaide, all signs point to Archie Roberts shining bright on the field with his disposal game. Roberts has been a force to be reckoned with in his last five home games, averaging a stellar 29.6 disposals. Plus, his recent performances against Adelaide have seen him maintain an average of 19 disposals, which is close to the line of 20.5. With a solid contested possessions average of 6 and an impressive disposal efficiency of 77.9%, Roberts is set to dominate the midfield battles. Not to mention his knack for intercepts and metres gained, showcasing his all-around impact. Riding a hot streak and boasting a consistent hit rate, Roberts seems primed to surpass the 20.5 disposal mark comfortably in this upcoming home game at Marvel Stadium.
Will Setterfield (Essendon) Over 14.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player prop bet, you want a bloke who's not just reliable, but consistently impactful. Enter Will Setterfield. This lad has been tearing up the turf lately, averaging a tidy 21.6 disposals in his last five home games, comfortably clearing the 14.5 line. What's more, his disposal efficiency sits at a respectable 67.6%, ensuring those possessions count. Facing off against the Adelaide Crows, whom he's recently averaged 16 disposals against, Setterfield is in prime position to feast on the ball. With his recent form and an impressive 88.5% implied probability to surpass 14.5 disposals, it's hard to go past backing Setterfield to rack up the touches at Marvel Stadium. Settle in, folks, for a Setterfield masterclass in ball-winning prowess.
Joel Jeffrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 11.5 Disposals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Joel Jeffrey, the numbers paint a clear picture for this Sunday's clash between the Gold Coast Suns and the Melbourne Demons at People First Stadium. Over his last five home games, Jeffrey has been a standout performer, averaging 16.8 disposals per game, well above the set line of 11.5. His ability to cover the ground efficiently is evident with 81.7% disposal efficiency and 433.6 meters gained on average. Facing Melbourne, he has historically averaged 13.8 disposals, indicating a strong track record against this opponent. With an implied probability of 87.7% and a model edge of 7.5%, Joel Jeffrey looks set to continue his impressive form, making the Over 11.5 disposals bet a compelling choice for footy punters.
Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 15.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player to hit the Over on disposals, Daniel Rioli stands out like a beacon in the upcoming clash between Gold Coast Suns and Melbourne Demons. Rioli's recent form at home has been nothing short of stellar, averaging 22.2 disposals over his last five games. His ability to find the footy, coupled with his impressive 83.2% disposal efficiency, makes him a reliable asset in the Suns' midfield. What's even more enticing is Rioli's consistency against Melbourne, boasting an average of 19.8 disposals in their previous encounters. With a model predicting him to notch up 23.5 disposals, well above the 15.5 line, the stats are in our favor. Rioli is in a purple patch, with a current hit streak of 4 at home and 2 overall, making him a prime candidate to shine brightly and surpass the disposal line come game day at People First Stadium.
Caleb Daniel (North Melbourne) Over 19.5 Disposals (-588)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to consistent ball-winning prowess, Caleb Daniel stands out as a reliable force for the North Melbourne Kangaroos. In his last five away clashes, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a stellar 22.4 disposals per game. Facing off against the Hawthorn Hawks, a team he's historically tallied an average of 22.8 disposals against, the stage is set for Daniel to shine once more. His ability to find space and distribute the ball efficiently, coupled with his knack for intercepting opposition plays, paints a picture of a player in top form. With a model predicting him to hit 27.4 disposals, well above the set line of 19.5, the smart money is on Daniel to once again dominate the possession count and snag a win for us in the 'Player Disposals Over' market.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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