Here are our AFL picks for Friday 7 August 2026. Our model likes 7 bets here. The one it likes most is Patrick Voss (Fremantle) Over 0.5 Goals, priced at -714 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Patrick Voss (Fremantle) Over 0.5 Goals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Patrick Voss snagging goals, the numbers paint a clear picture. In his last five away games, Voss has been a scoring machine, averaging 3.2 goals per match. His accuracy, sitting at a solid 67.0%, shows he knows how to split the middle when the pressure is on. With an average of 5.4 shots at goal per game, he's not shy about having a crack when the opportunity arises. Add in his impressive streak of 12 consecutive games with at least one goal, including a perfect 5/5 in away games, and it's hard to ignore his scoring prowess. Facing Melbourne, a team he's previously averaged a goal against, Voss is primed to bag one and help you cash in on the Over 0.5 goals player prop bet.
Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals (-526)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's talk Jack Gunston for this Friday's showdown between the Hawks and Lions at the Gabba. Gunston has been on fire lately, averaging a tidy 3 goals over his last 5 away games. Facing the Lions, he's been even more lethal, notching 2 goals per game in their last encounters. His accurate boot, hovering around 46%, coupled with his ability to get into dangerous positions inside 50 (3.4 marks on average), makes him a genuine scoring threat. With Gunston's recent form and history against the Lions, the Over 1.5 goals line looks like a juicy bet. He's riding a hot streak, hitting the back of the net in 2 out of his last 3 games overall, showing he's in fine touch. So, expect Gunston to snag a couple and help you snag a win on this player prop.
Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 20.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Archie Roberts hitting his disposal line, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 24 disposals. Facing Geelong, a team he's historically performed well against, with an average of 33 disposals in their last five matchups, Archie is poised to shine. His recent form is solid, boasting a 79.8% disposal efficiency and gaining an impressive 446.2 metres on average. With a streak of hitting his numbers and the model predicting him to reach 29.7 disposals, taking the Over on Archie Roberts at 20.5 disposals seems like a smart play. Expect him to be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions and driving Essendon's midfield with his precise ball movement and impact on the contest.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Noah Anderson is set to make waves for the Gold Coast Suns as they clash with the Greater Western Sydney Giants. Anderson's recent form on the road has been nothing short of impressive, averaging a staggering 29.6 disposals over his last five away games. His ability to find the ball in contested situations, coupled with a stellar disposal efficiency of 65.8%, indicates a player in top form. Facing off against the Giants, Anderson has historically performed well, averaging 28.2 disposals in his last five encounters against them. With his current hit streak of 6 away games and a model predicting him to hit 31.4 disposals, backing Anderson to surpass 22.5 disposals is a smart bet with a high probability of success. Expect Anderson to dominate the midfield and rack up the possessions in this upcoming showdown.
Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-556)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Brodie Kemp from Carlton Blues is flashing some serious form. In his last 5 away games, he's been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks, averaging 1.6 goals per game. What's even more impressive is his perfect 5/5 hit rate during these matches. Facing off against St Kilda, a team he's previously blanked in scoring, Kemp will be hungry to break that streak and add to his goal tally. With an average of 3.6 shots at goal and 5.8 score involvements per game, Kemp is actively involved in Carlton's forward movements. The odds favor Kemp to continue his scoring streak, making the Over 0.5 goals for him a tantalizing bet for this clash at Marvel Stadium.
Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 15.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's talk about Jayden Short and why he's a prime target for the Over 15.5 disposals against the Adelaide Crows. Short's been a defensive linchpin for the Tigers, averaging a solid 22.4 disposals in his last five away games. His ability to read the play and intercept (averaging 4.2) sets him apart, while his kicking game (17.2 kicks) is crucial for initiating attacks. Short's mettle is evident in his contested possessions (3 avg) and impeccable disposal efficiency (88.2%). Facing the Crows, who allow midfielders to run amok, Short's past performances against them (23 avg disposals) bode well. With a stellar hit streak of 9 away games and 19 overall, Short's consistency makes the Over a tantalizing bet at the Adelaide Oval.
Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) Over 17.5 Disposals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Hugo Garcia hitting the over on disposals against Carlton, the stats paint a compelling picture. In his last five home games, Garcia has been a possession machine, averaging a whopping 25.8 disposals. His efficiency sits at a solid 77.0%, ensuring he makes the most of every touch. Plus, his recent form against Carlton has seen him notch up an average of 12.3 disposals, well above the 17.5 line. With a current hit streak of 4 at home and an overall hit rate of 8/9 in recent games, Garcia is in fine form to dominate the midfield once again. Backing him to eclipse 17.5 disposals is a smart play given his recent performances and matchup history.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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