Here are our AFL picks for Friday 31 July 2026. Our model likes 7 bets here. The one it likes most is Noah Anderson (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 21.5 Disposals, priced at -769 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Noah Anderson (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 21.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Noah Anderson is a midfield maestro on the rise, and the numbers don't lie. In his last five home games, he's been a disposal machine, averaging a whopping 28.8 touches per outing. His ability to find the footy is second to none, with a keen eye for both kicks (15.8 avg) and handballs (13 avg). Anderson's recent form against Melbourne has been stellar too, averaging 29 disposals in their last five encounters. What sets Anderson apart is his consistency. He's been on a tear lately, boasting a 6-game hit streak at home and a 3-game hit streak overall. Combine that with his high disposalefficiency (76.7% avg) and his knack for gaining metres (477.8 avg), and you have a player primed to shine on the field. With a model predicting him to hit 31.4 disposals, taking the Over 21.5 on Noah Anderson is a smart play with a high probability of success. Trust in Anderson to lead the charge for the Suns against the Demons at People First Stadium.

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 20.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Archie Roberts hitting the Over 20.5 disposals mark in the upcoming Essendon Bombers clash against the Adelaide Crows, the numbers are shouting one thing loud and clear - he's primed to deliver. Over his last 5 home games, Archie has been an absolute workhorse, averaging a whopping 29.6 disposals. His efficiency stands out too, rocking a solid 77.9% success rate. Plus, facing off against the Crows, he's been even more lethal, averaging 19 disposals in his last 5 encounters. With a current hit streak of 3 and a stellar hit rate, Archie is in top form. With the home crowd behind him at Marvel Stadium, expect him to rack up the possessions and comfortably clear that 20.5 line.

Will Setterfield (Essendon) Over 14.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at the upcoming clash between Essendon and Adelaide, all signs point to Will Setterfield shining bright at Marvel Stadium. Setterfield's recent form at home has been nothing short of stellar, averaging 21.6 disposals over his last five games on familiar turf. With a solid 67.6% disposal efficiency and a knack for gaining crucial metres, Setterfield is poised to dominate the midfield once again. Facing the Adelaide Crows, against whom he has averaged 16 disposals in his last five encounters, Setterfield is primed to surpass the 14.5 disposal line. His consistency is evident, boasting an impressive 88.5% implied probability to hit the mark. With a current hit streak of 22 at home and an overall hit rate of 95% in his last 20 games, Setterfield is a reliable bet to rack up the possessions and deliver for punters looking to back him in the disposals market.

Joel Jeffrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 11.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Joel Jeffrey snagging disposals on home turf, the numbers paint a promising picture. Over his last five home games, Jeffrey has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 16.8 disposals. Facing Melbourne, he's been even more prolific, averaging 13.8 disposals against them. With his recent form showing a hunger for the footy with 12.8 kicks and 4 handballs per game, there's a good chance he'll split the middle and surpass the line of 11.5 disposals set by the bookies. Factor in his impressive 81.7% disposal efficiency and it's clear Jeffrey is poised to make a big impact in this clash at People First Stadium. Bet on him to shine and rack up the possessions come game day.

Liam Ryan (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Liam Ryan stands out like a beacon in the night sky. Playing at home in Marvel Stadium against the Sydney Swans, Ryan has been on an absolute tear lately. Over his last five home games, he's been a scoring machine, averaging a stellar 2.8 goals per game. Not to mention, he's been incredibly accurate in front of the big sticks, boasting a 55.3% goal accuracy rate. With a recent hit streak of 8 goals in his home games and a perfect hit rate of 4 goals in his last 4 overall games, Ryan is in red-hot form. Facing an opponent against whom he averages 1.5 goals when at home, the odds are heavily in his favor to split the middle at least once in this matchup. Betting on Ryan to go over 0.5 goals seems like a no-brainer given his current form and track record against the Swans. Trust in Ryan to deliver the goods when it matters most.

Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 15.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop, Daniel Rioli stands out like a shining star under the Gold Coast sun. With a recent hot streak and a knack for racking up disposals, Rioli's averaging a solid 22.2 possessions in his last five home games. His ability to find the footy, combined with an impressive 83.2% disposal efficiency, makes him a reliable choice to go over the bookie's line of 15.5 disposals. Against Melbourne, he's been even more prolific, averaging 19.8 touches in their last encounters. Rioli's form, consistency, and historical performance against the Demons make the over on his disposals a tantalizing bet for this Sunday clash. Trust Rioli to keep the ball moving and snag you a win in the disposals market.

Ryley Sanders (Western Bulldogs) Over 15.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to banking on a player to deliver in the disposals department, Ryley Sanders is a standout choice. Despite being away, he's been a midfield maestro for the Western Bulldogs, averaging a stellar 22.2 disposals across his last five away games. His ability to find space and move the ball efficiently, with a solid 76.0% disposal efficiency, sets him apart. Facing Fremantle, against whom he averages 20 disposals in their last encounters, Sanders is primed to dominate. With a current hit streak of 9 away games and an impressive overall hit rate of 16/17, Sanders is a reliable pick to surpass the 15.5 disposal line. Expect him to be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions and driving his team forward at Optus Stadium.

That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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