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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Waterman is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 88%, versus the book's implied 76%, for a model edge of +12.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 12:57PM UTC
AFL

Jake Waterman

West Coast Eagles

+12.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -313 (1.32)
+12.1% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 6:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Jun 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
87.8%
Implied Probability
75.8%
Model Edge
+12.1%
Predicted Value
2.4 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals87.8%75.8%1.14+12.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Jake Waterman (West Coast Eagles) Over 1.5 Goals (-312)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Jake Waterman's recent form at Optus Stadium, it's clear he's on fire. In his last 5 home games, he's been a goal-scoring machine, averaging a whopping 3.4 goals per game. Not only is he finding the big sticks consistently, but his accuracy is sitting at an impressive 71.5%. When playing against Collingwood specifically, Waterman has shown he can capitalize, averaging 3.8 marks inside 50 and 7.2 score involvements per game. With an average of 5.2 shots at goal in his last 5 home games, it's no wonder he's hit the back of the net so frequently. Considering his current form and the opportunities he creates, backing Waterman to snag over 1.5 goals against Collingwood seems like a smart bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs Collingwood MagpiesO 1.5 -333
60%hit L10 O 1.5
2.4avg goals L5
Home3.4vs Collingwood0.4Season best6
O 0.590%
O 1.560%
O 2.550%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)8 / 10 hit
3312234122

Jake Waterman has gone over 1.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 2.4 goals, best 6). Current line: Over 1.5 at -333.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Aug 26 West Coast Eagles @ Richmond Tigers Goals 1.5 Over -345 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 1.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles Goals 1.5 Over -238 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Western Bulldogs Goals Pending
03 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ West Coast Eagles Goals Pending
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals Pending

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About This Player

Jake Waterman (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Waterman is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.1% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 9 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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