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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Waterman is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 88%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +19.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 8:05AM UTC
AFL

Jake Waterman

West Coast Eagles

+19.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -213 (1.47)
+19.8% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
87.8%
Implied Probability
68.0%
Model Edge
+19.8%
Predicted Value
2.4 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals87.8%—68.0%1.14+19.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Jake Waterman (West Coast Eagles) Over 1.5 Goals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jake Waterman is on fire in front of goal, boasting an impressive 5-game scoring streak at home. With an average of 3 goals per game in his last 5 home matches, he's been a reliable target inside 50, showcasing his ability to convert opportunities efficiently with a stellar 61.5% goal accuracy. His recent form against Brisbane also bodes well, averaging 2 goals per game in their matchups. Waterman's knack for finding the big sticks, combined with his consistent shot output of 5.4 per game, makes him a prime candidate to snag 2 or more goals against the Lions. Bet on Waterman to continue his scoring spree and back him to go Over 1.5 goals in this electrifying clash at Optus Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 4(75%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs Brisbane LionsO 1.5 -213+19.8% edge
70%hit L10 O 1.5
2avg goals L5
Home3vs Brisbane Lions1Season best6
O 0.590%
O 1.570%
O 2.570%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)8 / 10 hit
3312234122

Jake Waterman has gone over 1.5 goals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 2 goals, best 6). Current line: Over 1.5 at -213, model edge +19.8%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Western Bulldogs Goals 1.5 Over -250 ✗ MISS
03 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ West Coast Eagles Goals 1.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals 1.5 Over -476 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jake Waterman (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Waterman is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.8% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles on Saturday 18 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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