Cooper Duff-Tytler (West Coast Eagles) Over 0.5 Goals (+110)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The model has Duff-Tytler projected at 0.7 goals against a line of 0.5, generating an 11.1% edge over the implied probability of 47.6% at $2.10. That's a meaningful gap worth taking seriously, even if the standard deviation of 0.9 reminds you this is a low-scoring role player where variance is real.
The concern is the underlying data. Duff-Tytler is averaging just 0.2 goals across his last five home games, converting at a brutal 6.7% accuracy rate from 1.2 shots at goal per game. He's averaging only one mark inside 50 at home, which limits his set shot opportunities considerably. His score involvements (3.0) and inside 50s (2.0) are modest. The model edge is genuine and worth a small play given the $2.10 price, but the raw L5 numbers suggest kicking a goal remains the exception rather than the rule — size this one accordingly.