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The latest Bet Better model pick for Harley Reid is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 80%, for a model edge of +2.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:44AM UTC
AFL

Harley Reid

West Coast Eagles

+2.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -400 (1.25)
+2.1% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
82.1%
Implied Probability
80.0%
Model Edge
+2.1%
Predicted Value
24.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.1%—80.0%1.22+2.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Harley Reid (West Coast Eagles) Over 19.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Harley Reid to surpass 19.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions on Saturday at Optus Stadium, the numbers paint a clear picture. Reid's recent form is nothing short of impressive, with an average of 26.4 disposals in his last five home games. His knack for finding the footy is evident, especially against the Lions, where he's averaged 20 disposals in their previous encounters. With a current hit streak of 6 at home and 13 overall, Reid is in a rich vein of form that suggests he's a safe bet to continue his disposal dominance. His ability to impact the game with both contested possessions and intercepts further solidifies his position as a reliable ball magnet. Betting on Reid to go over 19.5 disposals is not just a statistical play; it's a testament to his consistent performance and influence on the field.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Brisbane LionsO 20.5 -278+2.8% edge
90%hit L10 O 20.5
23.8avg disposals L5
Home26.4vs Brisbane Lions17.5Season best29
O 18.5100%
O 19.5100%
O 20.590%
O 21.570%
O 22.570%
O 23.550%
Game log vs line (O 20.5)3 / 10 hit
20211620192917122615

Harley Reid has gone over 20.5 disposals in 9 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 23.8 disposals, best 29). Current line: Over 20.5 at -278, model edge +2.8%.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 0.5
0.6avg goals L5
Home1vs Brisbane Lions0Season best3
O 0.570%
O 1.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.2 · hi 2 · lo 0
0000000002

Harley Reid has gone over 0.5 goals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.6 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 19.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 20.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 17.5 Over -714 ✗ MISS
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Harley Reid (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harley Reid is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles on Saturday 18 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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