Harley Reid (West Coast Eagles) Over 0.5 Goals (-139)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The model has Reid at 0.8 goals against a line of 0.5, generating a 4.2% edge at $1.72 — implying 58.1% probability where the model sees a meaningfully higher chance of him finding the big sticks. At home in Perth over his last five games, Reid is averaging 2.8 shots at goal and 4.6 inside-50 entries, which is the volume profile you want when targeting a 0.5 goals line. His L5 home goal accuracy sits at 24%, and with nearly three shots per game, the conversion math works in your favour more often than not.
The concern is his L5 home goals average of just 0.4 and a 0% hit rate against Hawthorn at home specifically, so this isn't a slam dunk. But the shot volume is genuine, the model edge is real, and home conditions at Optus Stadium support the case. Worth a measured play.