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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Graham is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +3.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 12:12PM UTC
AFL

Jack Graham

West Coast Eagles

+3.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -588 (1.17)
+3.3% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 6:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
88.8%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+3.3%
Predicted Value
19.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals88.8%85.5%1.13+3.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Jack Graham (West Coast Eagles) Over 13.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Jack Graham hitting the Over on disposals against Collingwood, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five home games, Graham has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 18.4 disposals per game. Facing Collingwood at Optus Stadium, where he’s dominated with an average of 26.5 disposals in their last five encounters, Graham is poised to feast on the Magpies once again. With his recent form showing an average of 10.2 kicks and 8.2 handballs at home, his midfield presence is undeniable. Add in his strong metres gained (227 per game) and contested possessions (8.6 per game), and you have a player who thrives under pressure. Graham’s disposal efficiency of 69.3% might have room for improvement, but his ability to find space and create scoring opportunities will be crucial. Expect Graham to rack up the possessions as he leads the Eagles to victory on his home turf.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Collingwood MagpiesO 16.5 -167
60%hit L10 O 16.5
16.8avg disposals L5
Home18.4vs Collingwood21.5Season best24
O 14.560%
O 15.560%
O 16.560%
O 17.560%
O 18.540%
O 19.520%
Game log vs line (O 16.5)9 / 10 hit
18171717192124191222

Jack Graham has gone over 16.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 16.8 disposals, best 24). Current line: Over 16.5 at -167.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Aug 26 West Coast Eagles @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 13.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 West Coast Eagles @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 14.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 West Coast Eagles @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 15.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 West Coast Eagles @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Jack Graham (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Graham is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.3% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 9 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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