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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Graham is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 84%, versus the book's implied 80%, for a model edge of +4.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 8:10AM UTC
AFL

Jack Graham

West Coast Eagles

+4.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -400 (1.25)
+4.5% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
84.5%
Implied Probability
80.0%
Model Edge
+4.5%
Predicted Value
19.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals84.5%—80.0%1.18+4.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jack Graham (West Coast Eagles) Over 14.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Jack Graham stands out like a shining star. The gritty midfielder for the West Coast Eagles has been a disposal machine in his recent home games, averaging a solid 18.6 disposals per match. Facing the Brisbane Lions, a team he's historically performed well against, with an average of 15 disposals in their last five encounters, Graham is poised to shine brightly at Optus Stadium. His ability to win contested possessions and cover ground efficiently, highlighted by his 71.3% disposal efficiency and 230.2 metres gained on average, sets the stage for a standout performance. With a line set at 14.5 disposals, Graham's consistent form and track record indicate a strong chance of surpassing that mark. Expect Graham to lead the charge in the midfield battle and rack up the possessions needed to deliver on this prop bet with confidence.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Brisbane LionsO 16.5 -182+8.4% edge
70%hit L10 O 16.5
17.2avg disposals L5
Home18.6vs Brisbane Lions13.3Season best24
O 14.570%
O 15.570%
O 16.570%
O 17.570%
O 18.560%
O 19.540%
Game log vs line (O 16.5)9 / 10 hit
18171717192124191222

Jack Graham has gone over 16.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 17.2 disposals, best 24). Current line: Over 16.5 at -182, model edge +8.4%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 16.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 13.5 Over -667 ✗ MISS
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 14.5 Over -400 ✗ MISS
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jack Graham (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Graham is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.5% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles on Saturday 18 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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