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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tim Taranto is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 51%, for a model edge of +19.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 19, 8:11PM UTC
AFL

Tim Taranto

Richmond

+19.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -105 (1.95)
+19.9% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
71.2%
Implied Probability
51.3%
Model Edge
+19.9%
Predicted Value
0.9 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals71.2%—51.3%1.40+19.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Tim Taranto (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-105)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to picking a player to snag a goal in the Richmond vs. Hawthorn clash, Tim Taranto stands out. Over his last five home games, Tim has been buzzing around the forward line, averaging 2 shots at goal and 0.4 goals per match. With his sharp eye for goal, hitting the scoreboard is almost second nature for him. Against Hawthorn, he's been even more lethal, averaging a goal per game in their recent encounters. Tim's recent form is solid, with a hit rate of 75% in his last four home games. Combine that with his current scoring streak and the likelihood of him splitting the middle at least once in this game looks strong. Betting on Tim Taranto to score over 0.5 goals could be a smart play this weekend at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 25.5
25.8avg disposals L5
Home27vs Hawthorn26Season best35
O 23.570%
O 24.560%
O 25.550%
O 26.530%
O 27.530%
O 28.520%
Game log vs line (O 25.5)avg 25 · hi 33 · lo 11
26332726271127251830

Tim Taranto has gone over 25.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 25.8 disposals, best 35).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.4avg goals L5
Home0.4vs Hawthorn0.8Season best1
O 0.540%
O 1.520%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 0.3 · hi 1 · lo 0
0111000000

Tim Taranto has gone over 1.5 goals in 2 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.4 goals, best 1).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -105 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -109 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 25.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
12 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending
04 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tim Taranto (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tim Taranto is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.9% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 19 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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