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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tim Taranto is Under 25.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +17.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 8, 11:34PM UTC
AFL

Tim Taranto

Richmond

+17.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 25.5 -125 (1.80)
+17.9% Edge
Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.4%
Implied Probability
55.6%
Model Edge
+17.9%
Predicted Value
22.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.4%55.6%1.36+17.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Tim Taranto (Richmond) Under 25.5 Disposals (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tim Taranto, the midfield maestro for the Richmond Tigers, heads into Adelaide Oval with stats that paint a clear picture. Despite a recent average of 23 disposals in away games, facing the Adelaide Crows poses a challenge. In his last five encounters with this opponent away from home, he's fallen short of the 25.5 line, averaging 24.8 disposals. Taranto’s disposal efficiency of 63.7% and contested possessions at 11 per game suggest he's a force to be reckoned with, but against the Crows, his numbers have consistently dipped. With a stellar model edge of 17.9% in our favor, betting on Taranto to go under 25.5 disposals seems like a smart play, backed by a history that speaks volumes.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
27avg disposals L5
Away23vs Adelaide Crows24.8Season best35
O 24.580%
O 25.560%
O 26.540%
O 27.530%
O 28.530%
O 29.520%
Game log vs line (O 26.5)avg 25 · hi 33 · lo 11
26332726271127251830

Tim Taranto has gone over 26.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 27 disposals, best 35).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 0.5
0.6avg goals L5
Away1.4vs Adelaide Crows0.2Season best1
O 0.550%
O 1.520%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.3 · hi 1 · lo 0
0111000000

Tim Taranto has gone over 0.5 goals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.6 goals, best 1).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 25.5 Under -125 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 West Coast Eagles @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -204 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 25.5 Under -119 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Goals Pending
12 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Melbourne Demons Goals Pending
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Tim Taranto (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tim Taranto is Under 25.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.9% on this pick. Their next game is Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 8 August at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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