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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mykelti Lefau is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 66%, for a model edge of +5.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 5:03PM UTC
AFL

Mykelti Lefau

Richmond

+5.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -196 (1.51) · $100→$151
+5.9% Edge
Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
72.1%
Implied Probability
66.2%
Model Edge
+5.9%
Predicted Value
1.0 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals72.1%66.2%1.39+5.9%

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AI Analysis

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Mykelti Lefau (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-196)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Mykelti Lefau's recent form, it's clear he's been a real threat in front of goal. Averaging 1 goal per game in his last 5 away matches, with a solid 80% goal accuracy overall, he's been clinical when opportunities arise. His involvement in the Tigers' attacking plays is evident, with 3 score involvements per game and 1.8 shots at goal on average. Facing Adelaide Crows, who have conceded an average of 0.5 goals to similar players recently, Lefau is poised to capitalize on their defensive vulnerabilities. With a 66.2% implied probability to snag at least one goal, betting on Lefau to score over 0.5 goals seems like a promising wager, especially given his current hit streak and consistent performance.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Mykelti Lefau averaged 7.2 disposals, 1.4 goals and 3.1 marks per game across 10 games in 2024.

7.2
Disposals
1.4
Goals
3.1
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (1 Jun 24 vs Geelong Cats), Mykelti Lefau recorded 7 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
1 Jun 24Geelong Cats7231
25 May 24Essendon5222
18 May 24Brisbane Lions5121
11 May 24Western Bulldogs11030
5 May 24Fremantle8253
24 Apr 24Melbourne9132
14 Apr 24West Coast Eagles12385
7 Apr 24St Kilda7122
31 Mar 24Sydney Swans3221
24 Mar 24Port Adelaide5012
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -185 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Goals Pending

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About This Player

Mykelti Lefau (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mykelti Lefau is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.9% on this pick. Their next game is Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 8 August at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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