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The latest Bet Better model pick for Noah Balta is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +9.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Noah Balta

Richmond

+9.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -164 (1.61)
+9.3% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
71.4%
Implied Probability
62.1%
Model Edge
+9.3%
Predicted Value
0.9 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals71.4%62.1%1.40+9.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Noah Balta (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-164)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Noah Balta's recent form playing at the MCG, he's been a real threat in front of goal. Averaging 2.6 shots on goal in his last five home games, he's been knocking on the door consistently. Balta's also been involved in the Tigers' scoring plays, with an average of 5.2 score involvements per game. His accuracy might not be elite at 30%, but his ability to create chances for himself is promising. Facing off against Hawthorn, a team he's historically found success against, averaging a goal per game in their matchups, Balta seems poised to snag one and help push the Tigers over the line. With an implied probability of 62.1% to score, backing him to get over 0.5 goals looks like a solid play for this Sunday clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 11.5
12avg disposals L5
Home13.8vs Hawthorn12.2Season best23
O 9.590%
O 10.580%
O 11.580%
O 12.560%
O 13.560%
O 14.540%
Game log vs line (O 11.5)avg 10.5 · hi 17 · lo 5
1481011139717511

Noah Balta has gone over 11.5 disposals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 12 disposals, best 23).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 0.5
1avg goals L5
Home1vs Hawthorn0.4Season best3
O 0.560%
O 1.530%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.5 · hi 3 · lo 0
0300000020

Noah Balta has gone over 0.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -164 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 10.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Noah Balta (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Noah Balta is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.3% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 19 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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