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The latest Bet Better model pick for Noah Balta is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +9.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:21PM UTC
AFL

Noah Balta

Richmond

+9.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -164 (1.61) · $100→$161
+9.3% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
71.4%
Implied Probability
62.1%
Model Edge
+9.3%
Predicted Value
0.9 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals71.4%62.1%1.40+9.3%

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AI Analysis

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Noah Balta (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-164)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Noah Balta's recent form playing at the MCG, he's been a real threat in front of goal. Averaging 2.6 shots on goal in his last five home games, he's been knocking on the door consistently. Balta's also been involved in the Tigers' scoring plays, with an average of 5.2 score involvements per game. His accuracy might not be elite at 30%, but his ability to create chances for himself is promising. Facing off against Hawthorn, a team he's historically found success against, averaging a goal per game in their matchups, Balta seems poised to snag one and help push the Tigers over the line. With an implied probability of 62.1% to score, backing him to get over 0.5 goals looks like a solid play for this Sunday clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
10.5avg disposals recent
Season best23
Disposals last 10avg 10.5 · hi 17 · lo 5
1481011139717511

Noah Balta has a disposals high of 23 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.5avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 0.5 · hi 3 · lo 0
0300000020

Noah Balta has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -164 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 10.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Noah Balta (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Noah Balta is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.3% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 19 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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