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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bradley Hill is Under 26.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 54%, for a model edge of +18.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:42PM UTC
AFL

Bradley Hill

St Kilda

+18.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 26.5 -116 (1.86) · $100→$186
+18.5% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 26 Jul, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.3%
Implied Probability
53.8%
Model Edge
+18.5%
Predicted Value
23.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.3%—53.8%1.38+18.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Bradley Hill (St Kilda) Under 26.5 Disposals (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Look, when it comes to Bradley Hill and his disposal numbers, the numbers don't lie. Sure, he's been a consistent performer, but recent trends suggest a slight dip in his output. Over his last five away games, he's averaged 26.8 disposals, which is just a whisker above the line set at 26.5. Plus, in his last five games against North Melbourne, he's averaged 20.8 disposals when playing away. Add in the fact that Hill's contested possessions and turnovers haven't been stellar recently, and you've got a compelling case for taking the Under on his disposals line. With his disposal efficiency also taking a hit, the stage is set for Bradley Hill to potentially fall short of the mark. Betting against the grain here could be the savvy move for this clash at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
33.4avg disposals L5
Home30vs Carlton19Season best33
O 31.540%
O 32.540%
O 33.540%
O 34.530%
O 35.530%
O 36.530%
Game log vs line (O 33.5)avg 16.3 · hi 24 · lo 10
15181924181113211014

Bradley Hill has gone over 33.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 33.4 disposals, best 33).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 26.5 Under -116 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Bradley Hill (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bradley Hill is Under 26.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.5% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Sunday 26 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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