Buku Khamis (Western Bulldogs) Over 9.5 Disposals (-204)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Khamis is a strong play here, and the numbers back it convincingly. The model projects 12.9 disposals against a line of just 9.5, generating a 9.6% edge at odds implying 67.1% — that's meaningful value on a prop that looks significantly mispriced. What's particularly compelling is how well Khamis travels: his L5 away games average sits at 12.8 disposals, and he's averaged 13.0 specifically against Adelaide away, both comfortably clearing this line. He's hit the over in three straight away fixtures and 15 of his last 17 overall, which is a 88% hit rate that's hard to dismiss.
The underlying profile supports it too — 8.2 kicks and 6.6 intercepts per away game over the last five suggests he's finding the ball cleanly and often, with an 84.6% disposal efficiency keeping the volume honest. At 9.5, the line simply doesn't reflect what this bloke does on the road.