Buku Khamis (Western Bulldogs) Over 9.5 Disposals (-200)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Khamis is a strong play here against Adelaide at Adelaide Oval. The model has him projecting 12.9 disposals against a line of just 9.5 — a 3.4-disposal gap that translates to a 10% edge over the implied 66.7% probability baked into the $1.50 price. That's a meaningful discrepancy worth acting on.
The away-game numbers are what really sell this. Khamis is averaging 12.8 disposals in his last five away games, split across 8.2 kicks and 4.6 handballs, with an elite 84.6% disposal efficiency and 179.8 metres gained per game — suggesting he's not just accumulating, he's doing it cleanly. Against Adelaide specifically, he's averaged 13.0 disposals in away fixtures over the last five meetings. He's hit this line in three straight away games and 15 of his last 17 overall. The 9.5 line is simply too low given what the data consistently shows.