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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Dale is Over 23.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +17.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:35AM UTC
AFL

Bailey Dale

Western Bulldogs

+17.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 23.5 -125 (1.80) · $100→$180
+17.1% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 17 Apr, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
72.7%
Implied Probability
55.6%
Model Edge
+17.1%
Predicted Value
26.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.7%55.6%1.38+17.1%

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AI Analysis

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Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) Over 23.5 Disposals (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Dale is primed to shine on the footy field when the Western Bulldogs clash with the Geelong Cats. In his last five away games, Dale has been a midfield maestro, averaging 21.8 disposals, showcasing his prowess in finding space and creating opportunities. Facing the Cats, he's maintained a solid 20.8 disposal average, indicating his consistency against this opponent. With a model prediction of 26.5, a significant 17.1% edge, and an implied probability of 55.6%, all signs point to Dale surpassing the 23.5 disposal line. His ability to read the play, intercept, and drive the ball forward makes him a key asset in this matchup. Expect Dale to rack up possessions, impact the game, and snag a win for the Bulldogs.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
24.5avg disposals recent
Season best39
Disposals last 10avg 24.5 · hi 34 · lo 14
25233123253414232720

Bailey Dale has a disposals high of 39 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals 23.5 Over -125 ✗ MISS
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals 22.5 Over -161 ✗ MISS
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals 21.5 Over -244 ✗ MISS
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Dale is Over 23.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.1% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Geelong Cats on Friday 17 April at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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