Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Dale is Over 4.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 64 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 64%, implied 60%, edge +16.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 12:02PM UTC
AFL

Bailey Dale

Western Bulldogs

+16.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 4.5 -152 (1.66) · $100→$166
+16.4% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
77 in 100
Predicted
6.0 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 76.6% · the book's price implies 60.2% · gap +16.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks76.6%64.2%60.2%1.56+16.4%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Magpies: Bailey Dale Over 4.5 Marks (-152)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Dale is set at over 4.5 marks, and our numbers really like this bet. He's been pretty steady, with his average marks hovering around the middle ground lately. Plus, the Western Bulldogs have been playing a lot of close games, which usually means more chances for players like him to rack up marks. The main risk here is that both teams have been struggling a bit in contested ball situations, which can affect how much the ball gets moved around. Still, with Collingwood conceding almost 90 points a game and Dale's ability to find space, he should have good opportunities to hit that mark.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Bailey Dale averaged 24.8 disposals, 0.2 goals and 6.1 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

24.8
Disposals
0.2
Goals
6.1
Marks
1.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), Bailey Dale recorded 20 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Sep 24Hawthorn20041
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS27132
18 Aug 24North Melbourne23083
11 Aug 24Adelaide Crows14020
2 Aug 24Melbourne34080
28 Jul 24Sydney Swans25081
20 Jul 24Geelong Cats23061
13 Jul 24Carlton31141
6 Jul 24Port Adelaide23040
29 Jun 24North Melbourne25042
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Marks 4.5 Over -152 ✓ HIT
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Marks 3.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Fantasy 89.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Fantasy Pending
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Fantasy Pending
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Dale is Over 4.5 on Marks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.4% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs on Friday 28 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.