Jack Whitlock (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Goals (-192)

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The model projects Whitlock at 1.3 goals against a line of just 0.5, generating a 19% edge over the implied probability of 65.8% — that's a meaningful gap worth taking seriously. His overall L5 shots at goal average of 2.8 is the key figure here: a player generating nearly three shots per game has a strong structural case to kick at least one, and his 19% overall goal accuracy across the last five games supports that conversion rate holding up. The concern is his away form, where his L5 goals average drops to 0.4 and his shots at goal fall to 2.2, with a worrying 13.3% accuracy away from home. He's also gone goalless in his last five against Sydney specifically. The model still sees enough volume — 2.2 shots and 1.6 marks inside 50 in away games — to back the over, but this is a tighter edge than the headline numbers suggest. Proceed with measured stakes.

Rhyan Mansell (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-185)

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Rhyan Mansell to kick at least one goal against Adelaide looks like a well-supported edge rather than a speculative dart. The model projects him at 1.2 goals against a line of 0.5, generating a 17.8% edge over the implied probability of 64.9% — that's a meaningful gap worth acting on. What makes this particularly compelling is his away form: Mansell is averaging 1.4 goals and 3.0 shots at goal in his last five away trips, converting at 58.3% — well above his overall 38.3% accuracy — and he's averaging 1.6 marks inside 50, giving him genuine set shot opportunities. His away hit rate of 7/8 over the last eight games tells the same story, and he's averaging 1.5 goals in his last five away games specifically against Adelaide. The volume is there through the big sticks, the accuracy holds up on the road, and the model sees clear value at $1.54.

Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Gunston is one of the most reliable multiple-goal forwards in the competition right now, and the numbers back that up emphatically. His overall hit rate of 17/20 for this line is exceptional, and away from home it's even sharper — 10 of his last 12 road trips he's cleared 1.5 goals, averaging a tidy 3.0 goals per game in that split. The model projects 2.9 goals here against Brisbane, sitting 14.2% clear of the implied probability baked into the $1.22 price. That's a meaningful edge on a short-priced market. What underpins the projection is the volume: 5.8 shots at goal across his last five away games with 3.4 marks inside 50, giving him consistent opportunities to convert. A 46% goal accuracy on that shot volume comfortably supports multiple majors. The Gabba is a tough venue, but Gunston's away form suggests the ground holds no demons for him.

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