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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Toronto Blue Jays

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 21, 4:14AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Rogers Centre, Toronto
Indoor
Thu 5 Jun 2025, 7:07PM
0
Game markets graded
9
Props graded
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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 164 of 342 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 20
Bryce Miller Over 2.5
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Player props & full board
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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Jonathan Bowlan RPDay-to-day
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Jesus Luzardo SPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Cristopher Sanchez SP

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1BDay-to-day
  • Dylan Cease SPDay-to-day
  • Trey Yesavage SPOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Shane Bieber SPOut
  • Jameson Taillon SPOut
  • Rudy Martin Jr. RFOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Patrick Corbin SPOut
  • Jonatan Clase LFOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Jake Bloss SPOut
  • Luis Urias 2BOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Spencer Miles SP
Availability updated Sep 20, 8:09PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 23 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability23 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Stolen Bases
Bowden Francis TOR Pitcher - Walks
Bowden Francis TOR Pitcher - Strikeouts
Cristopher Sanchez PHI Pitcher - Strikeouts
George Springer TOR Batter - Stolen Bases

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineToronto Blue JaysNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.0L5 RA5.0Home L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1Free board19-15

Toronto Blue Jays moneyline form: last five 2-3, 4.0 runs/gm.

Run LineToronto Blue Jays run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.0L5 RA5.0Home L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1

Toronto Blue Jays spread form: last five 2-3, 4.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Toronto Blue Jays total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsToronto Blue Jays team totalNo line posted
3.6runs we expect
L5 RF4.0L5 RA5.0Home L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1

Toronto Blue Jays team total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.0 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays — what the model found

Our model graded 9 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays — 0 on the game itself and 9 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

9
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 9 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays — recent results

Toronto Blue Jays have won 1 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5.

Toronto Blue Jays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–7TEXAway
L2–6TEXAway
W5–1DETHome
L1–10DETHome
L5–6DETHome
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–10NYMAway
L3–6NYMAway
W3–0NYMAway
W3–0WSHAway
L3–6WSHAway

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Toronto Blue Jays won 6, Philadelphia Phillies won 4.

DateToronto Blue JaysPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Aug 967Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 875Toronto Blue Jays
Aug 754Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 1047Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 932Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 825Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 1258Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 710Toronto Blue Jays
Feb 2875Toronto Blue Jays
Feb 2130Toronto Blue Jays

Who’s out or in doubt

23 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Toronto Blue Jays
PlayerStatus
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Dylan Cease SPDAY-TO-DAY
Trey Yesavage SPOUT
Anthony Santander RFOUT
Shane Bieber SPOUT
Jameson Taillon SPOUT
Rudy Martin Jr. RFOUT
Cody Ponce SPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Jonathan Bowlan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Jesus Luzardo SPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies. Featuring picks like NA props. Discover same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.

Jesus Luzardo (PHI) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-1667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Jesus Luzardo for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is backed by his recent performance data. In his last five games, Luzardo has allowed an average of 5.2 hits overall and 5.4 hits while playing away. This is significantly higher than the line of 2.5 hits. Moreover, his average innings pitched (IP) in the last five games is 6 overall and 5.4 away, which suggests he will likely be on the mound long enough to allow more than 2.5 hits. Additionally, Luzardo has a current hit streak of 3 overall and 9 away, indicating a consistent pattern of allowing hits. This combination of high hit averages and sustained hit streaks makes the Over 2.5 bet a statistically sound choice.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Jays, or as Jays vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Thursday 5 June 2025 at Rogers Centre. The model has generated 9 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 42 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 24–17 across the last 42 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 9.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies7–6Philadelphia Phillies
8 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies5–7Toronto Blue Jays
7 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies4–5Toronto Blue Jays
10 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays4–7Philadelphia Phillies
9 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays3–2Toronto Blue Jays
8 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays2–5Philadelphia Phillies
12 Mar 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies8–5Philadelphia Phillies
7 Mar 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies0–1Toronto Blue Jays
28 Feb 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays7–5Toronto Blue Jays
21 Feb 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays3–0Toronto Blue Jays

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 42 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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