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Model picks & player props
Toronto Blue Jays
VS
Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 7:24AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Outdoor
Wed 30 Jul 2025, 4:35PM
20
Game markets graded
4
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 6.5 Team Total +185

The model graded 24 markets for Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $285 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 30 Jul 2025, 4:35PM at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win54.8%
The price says35.1%
Best price+185
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Team Total Over 6.5 Lean55% chance +185
Team Total High99% chance
Team Total High99% chance
Team Total Long-shot38% chance
Total Runs High85% chance
Team Total High99% chance
Team Total High99% chance
Total Runs High75% chance
Team Total Long-shot34% chance
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 2 props Highup to 97%
Batter - Stolen Bases × 2 props Highup to 93%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Team Total
Over
7.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Trey Yesavage SPOut
  • Jameson Taillon SPOut
  • Josh Smith 2BOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jonatan Clase LFOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Shane Bieber SPOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Jake Bloss SPOut
  • Luis Urias 2BOut
  • Patrick Corbin SPOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Max Scherzer SP

Baltimore Orioles

  • Pete Alonso 1BDay-to-day
  • Samuel Basallo CDay-to-day
  • Tyler O'Neill RFOut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Chris Bassitt SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 11:30PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 24 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability24 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Dean Kremer BAL Pitcher - Strikeouts
Jose Berrios TOR Pitcher - Strikeouts
Cedric Mullins BAL Batter - Stolen Bases
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 4 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBaltimore OriolesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L55-0

Baltimore Orioles moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

Run LineBaltimore Orioles run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L55-0

Baltimore Orioles spread form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue JaysNo line posted

Baltimore Orioles total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBaltimore Orioles team totalNo line posted
0.7runs we expect
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L55-0

Baltimore Orioles team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles — what the model found

Our model graded 24 betting markets for Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles — 20 on the game itself and 4 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
4
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 24 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles — recent results

Baltimore Orioles have won 4 of their last 5 games; Toronto Blue Jays have won 4 of their last 5.

Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3ATHAway
W8–5ATHAway
W4–3ATHAway
L5–7STLAway
W8–7STLAway
Toronto Blue Jays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–0SEAHome
W4–3SEAHome
W8–1SEAHome
L2–13KCHome
W3–0KCHome

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Baltimore Orioles are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while Toronto Blue Jays are at 1.8 (1-4); Baltimore Orioles pitchers are allowing 5.4 earned runs per game versus 4.4 for Toronto Blue Jays.

4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
1.8
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
Last 5 gamesBaltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays
Runs / game4.01.8
Hits / game5.66.0
Home runs / game2.20.2
Walks drawn / game2.82.2
Batter K / game8.06.4
Earned runs allowed / game5.44.4
Pitching K / game5.46.2
Walks allowed / game3.62.8
L5 record3-21-4

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles — recent meetings

These two have met 9 times recently: Baltimore Orioles won 4, Toronto Blue Jays won 5.

DateBaltimore OriolesToronto Blue JaysWinner
Jun 746Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 646Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 5133Baltimore Orioles
May 3195Baltimore Orioles
May 3065Baltimore Orioles
May 2956Toronto Blue Jays
May 2812Toronto Blue Jays
Mar 1832Baltimore Orioles
Mar 801Toronto Blue Jays

Who’s out or in doubt

24 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Pete Alonso 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Samuel Basallo CDAY-TO-DAY
Tyler O'Neill RFOUT
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Colin Selby RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Keegan Akin RPOUT
Toronto Blue Jays
PlayerStatus
Trey Yesavage SPOUT
Jameson Taillon SPOUT
Josh Smith 2BOUT
Anthony Santander RFOUT
Jonatan Clase LFOUT
Yimi Garcia RPOUT
Shane Bieber SPOUT
Joe Mantiply RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays stats and odds.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays : Under 11.5 Total Runs (-204)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The 'Under 11.5' bet for the Total Runs market in the Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays game is a solid choice based on recent performance data. Both teams have demonstrated relatively low scoring averages in their last five games, with the Orioles averaging 4 runs and the Blue Jays averaging just 1.8. Furthermore, the Orioles have allowed an average of 4.6 runs at home, while the Blue Jays have allowed the same average on the road. These defensive statistics suggest that both teams are likely to limit the number of runs scored by the opposition. Additionally, both teams have lower batting averages and home runs, further supporting the under bet. The model prediction of 9.57 total runs also aligns with this under bet, providing an 8% edge over the implied probability. Overall, the data suggests a lower scoring game, making the 'Under 11.5' a logical choice.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Jays vs Orioles, or as Orioles vs Jays. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 30 July 2025 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 57 meetings on record
Baltimore Orioles 32–24 across the last 57 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 10.2 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
7 Jun 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays6–4Toronto Blue Jays
6 Jun 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays6–4Toronto Blue Jays
5 Jun 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays3–13Baltimore Orioles
31 May 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles9–5Baltimore Orioles
30 May 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles6–5Baltimore Orioles
29 May 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles5–6Toronto Blue Jays
28 May 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles1–2Toronto Blue Jays
18 Mar 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays2–3Baltimore Orioles
8 Mar 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles0–1Toronto Blue Jays
14 Sep 2025Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays11–2Toronto Blue Jays

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 57 meetings on file.

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