Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Model picks & player props
Toronto Blue Jays
VS
Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Outdoor
Wed 30 Jul 2025, 4:35PM
20
Game Picks
4
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 6.5 (Team Total Runs)
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles (MLB), model win probability 54.8%, fair odds 1.83, book price +185, model edge +19.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Wed 30 Jul 2025, 4:35PM at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Runs
Over
7.5
+ 19 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

See the full board for this matchup — every market, every line, every edge — plus every pick across the slate.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Unlock the full calibrated board

See the model's calibrated probability, fair odds and edge on every market in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Max Scherzer SPOut
  • Lenyn Sosa 2BOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jesus Sanchez RFOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Dylan Cease SP

Baltimore Orioles

  • Adley Rutschman COut
  • Samuel Basallo CDay-to-day
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Shane Baz SP
Availability updated Jul 20, 11:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 20 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability20 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Dean Kremer BAL Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jose Berrios TOR Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cedric Mullins BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

Unlock every player prop for this game

Get the player, the line, the pick and the edge on every graded prop in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock player props
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBaltimore OriolesNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.0Home L53-2vs Toronto Blue Jays L53-2Win rec9-5

Baltimore Orioles moneyline form: last five 4-1, 4.4 runs/gm.

Run LineBaltimore Orioles run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.0Home L53-2vs Toronto Blue Jays L53-2ATS9-5

Baltimore Orioles spread form: last five 4-1, 4.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue JaysNo line posted

Baltimore Orioles total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBaltimore Orioles team totalNo line posted
3.0implied team total
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.0Home L53-2vs Toronto Blue Jays L53-2

Baltimore Orioles team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.4 runs/gm.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Baltimore Orioles are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while Toronto Blue Jays are at 1.8 (1-4); Baltimore Orioles pitchers are allowing 5.4 earned runs per game versus 4.4 for Toronto Blue Jays.

4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
1.8
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
Last 5 gamesBaltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays
Runs / game4.01.8
Hits / game5.66.0
Home runs / game2.20.2
Walks drawn / game2.82.2
Batter K / game8.06.4
Earned runs allowed / game5.44.4
Pitching K / game5.46.2
Walks allowed / game3.62.8
L5 record3-21-4

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays stats and odds.</p>

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays : Under 11.5 Total Runs (-204)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The 'Under 11.5' bet for the Total Runs market in the Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays game is a solid choice based on recent performance data. Both teams have demonstrated relatively low scoring averages in their last five games, with the Orioles averaging 4 runs and the Blue Jays averaging just 1.8. Furthermore, the Orioles have allowed an average of 4.6 runs at home, while the Blue Jays have allowed the same average on the road. These defensive statistics suggest that both teams are likely to limit the number of runs scored by the opposition. Additionally, both teams have lower batting averages and home runs, further supporting the under bet. The model prediction of 9.57 total runs also aligns with this under bet, providing an 8% edge over the implied probability. Overall, the data suggests a lower scoring game, making the 'Under 11.5' a logical choice.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays : Under 10.5 Total Runs (-135)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The under 10.5 bet for the Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays game is a solid choice based on recent scoring trends. The Orioles' recent home games have averaged 5.6 runs, while the Blue Jays have struggled offensively on the road, averaging just 2.8 runs. The Orioles' pitching has also been robust, allowing an average of 4.6 runs at home, which is manageable considering the Blue Jays' low scoring average. Furthermore, the Blue Jays' pitchers have shown good form on the road, with a higher strikeout average (7.4) and a lower walk average (2.4), indicating their ability to limit the Orioles' scoring opportunities. Given these stats, it's reasonable to expect a combined score of less than 10.5 runs.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-294)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Over 7.5' for the Total Runs in the Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays game is supported by the teams' recent scoring and defensive data. The Orioles have a solid record at home, scoring an average of 5.6 runs in their last five home games, while the Blue Jays have been allowing an average of 4.6 runs in their recent away games. This suggests a high likelihood of the Orioles scoring at least 5 runs. Additionally, the Orioles have been allowing an average of 4.6 runs in their recent home games, which increases the probability of the Blue Jays adding to the total score. Moreover, both teams' batting averages and home run stats indicate a strong offensive performance, further supporting the prediction of a high-scoring game.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Wednesday 30 July 2025 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks