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Model picks & player props
Toronto Blue Jays
VS
Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:15PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Outdoor
Wed 30 Jul 2025, 4:35PM
20
Game markets graded
4
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 6.5 (Team Total)
The model graded 24 markets for Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $285 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 54.8%, fair odds 1.83, book price +185, model edge +19.7%. Tip-off Wed 30 Jul 2025, 4:35PM at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total
Over
7.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Blue Jays

  • George Springer DHDay-to-day
  • Spencer Arrighetti SPOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Luis Urias 2BOut
  • Trey Yesavage SPOut
  • Patrick Corbin SPOut
  • Lenyn Sosa 2BOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Jonatan Clase LFOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Jameson Taillon SP

Baltimore Orioles

  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Samuel Basallo COut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Trevor Rogers SP
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 23 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability23 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Dean Kremer BAL Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jose Berrios TOR Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cedric Mullins BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBaltimore OriolesNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Toronto Blue Jays L52-3Free board8-8

Baltimore Orioles moneyline form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

Run LineBaltimore Orioles run lineNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Toronto Blue Jays L52-3Free board10-9

Baltimore Orioles spread form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue JaysNo line posted

Baltimore Orioles total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBaltimore Orioles team totalNo line posted
1.4runs we expect
L5 RF2.2L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Toronto Blue Jays L52-3

Baltimore Orioles team total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles — what the model found

Our model graded 24 betting markets for Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles — 20 on the game itself and 4 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
4
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 24 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 23 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles — recent results

Baltimore Orioles have won 2 of their last 5 games; Toronto Blue Jays have won 2 of their last 5.

Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–5TEXAway
L1–2TEXAway
L1–5TEXAway
L1–4LAAHome
W5–2LAAHome
Toronto Blue Jays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L6–7PHIAway
W7–5PHIAway
W5–4PHIAway
L2–3CHCAway
L2–7HOUAway

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Baltimore Orioles are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while Toronto Blue Jays are at 1.8 (1-4); Baltimore Orioles pitchers are allowing 5.4 earned runs per game versus 4.4 for Toronto Blue Jays.

4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
1.8
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
Last 5 gamesBaltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays
Runs / game4.01.8
Hits / game5.66.0
Home runs / game2.20.2
Walks drawn / game2.82.2
Batter K / game8.06.4
Earned runs allowed / game5.44.4
Pitching K / game5.46.2
Walks allowed / game3.62.8
L5 record3-21-4

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Baltimore Orioles won 0, Toronto Blue Jays won 1.

DateBaltimore OriolesToronto Blue JaysWinner
Jun 746Toronto Blue Jays

Who’s out or in doubt

23 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Blaze Alexander 3BOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Samuel Basallo COUT
Chris Bassitt SPOUT
Colin Selby RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Keegan Akin RPOUT
Toronto Blue Jays
PlayerStatus
George Springer DHDAY-TO-DAY
Spencer Arrighetti SPOUT
Yimi Garcia RPOUT
Luis Urias 2BOUT
Trey Yesavage SPOUT
Patrick Corbin SPOUT
Lenyn Sosa 2BOUT
Joe Mantiply RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays stats and odds.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays : Under 11.5 Total Runs (-204)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The 'Under 11.5' bet for the Total Runs market in the Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays game is a solid choice based on recent performance data. Both teams have demonstrated relatively low scoring averages in their last five games, with the Orioles averaging 4 runs and the Blue Jays averaging just 1.8. Furthermore, the Orioles have allowed an average of 4.6 runs at home, while the Blue Jays have allowed the same average on the road. These defensive statistics suggest that both teams are likely to limit the number of runs scored by the opposition. Additionally, both teams have lower batting averages and home runs, further supporting the under bet. The model prediction of 9.57 total runs also aligns with this under bet, providing an 8% edge over the implied probability. Overall, the data suggests a lower scoring game, making the 'Under 11.5' a logical choice.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Jays vs Orioles, or as Orioles vs Jays. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 30 July 2025 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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