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Model picks & player props
Manchester City
VS
Liverpool

Manchester City vs Liverpool Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 13, 4:51AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

Soccer
Anfield, Liverpool
Outdoor
Sun 11 Oct 2026, 3:30PM
11
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Manchester City 2.5 Spread -3333

The model graded 11 markets for Manchester City vs Liverpool (Soccer) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $103 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 11 Oct 2026, 3:30PM at Anfield.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win95.3%
The price says89.7%
Best price-3333
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Manchester City 2.5 High95% chance -3333
Draw No Bet High60% chance —
Spread High87% chance —
Spread High99% chance —
Head to Head (3-Way) Lean44% chance —
Moneyline Lean44% chance —
Total Goals High82% chance —
Total Goals High96% chance —
Head to Head (3-Way) Long-shot26% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every Soccer game on today's board →
Liverpool are the model's favourite to beat Manchester City, with a 56% chance to win. Kick-off Sun 11 Oct, 3:30PM at Anfield. Best bet: Manchester City 2.5 at -3333.
How they've been scoring this season
Manchester CityLiverpool
Won-lost3-0-01-0-2
Goals scored per game2.32.0
Goals allowed per game0.71.3
On the road / at home1-0-0 away0-0-1 at home
Last 5 gamesWWWDDW
Their games average 3.2 total goals this season.
From the 3 Manchester City and 3 Liverpool games on our books this season.
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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best Soccer market — 65 of 136 right (soccer draw no bet calls)
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Manchester City
+3.5
-10000
+ 10 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Manchester CitySpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manchester CityDraw No BetThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manchester CitySpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manchester CitySpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manchester CityHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manchester CityMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DrawHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DrawMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Manchester City

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Liverpool

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Manchester City vs Liverpool: Soccer weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Soccer on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

1 market live
MoneylineManchester City @ LiverpoolNo line posted
3-4-1past meetings (last 8)
Draw26%Home form13-5-2Away form11-5-4
past meetings, home wins3 / 8 home

In their last 8 meetings, Liverpool have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 1.

Both Teams to ScoreManchester City @ LiverpoolNo line posted
5 / 8past meetings, both scored
Liverpool65%Manchester45%
past meetings, both scored5 / 8 both scored

Both teams scored in 65% of Liverpool's and 45% of Manchester City's recent matches.

Total GoalsManchester City @ LiverpoolUnder +6.5 -10000
98%model over %
3 / 8past meetings, over 2.5
Home ov2.565%Away ov2.550%past meetings avg2.8
past meetings, over 2.53 / 8 over

The last 8 meetings averaged 2.8 goals, over 2.5 in 3 of them; the model prices Under at 98% here.

Manchester City @ Liverpool — what the model found

Our model graded 11 betting markets for Manchester City at Liverpool — 11 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

11
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 11 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 10 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Manchester City vs Liverpool in the Soccer. The next scheduled game is Sunday 11 October 2026 at Anfield. The model has generated 11 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Soccer betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 38 meetings on record
Liverpool 13–11 across the last 38 meetings · 14 draws · these games average 3.0 goals (meetings on record since 2007)
DateGameScoreWinner
8 Feb 2026Manchester City @ Liverpool1–2Manchester City
9 Nov 2025Liverpool @ Manchester City3–0Manchester City
23 Feb 2025Liverpool @ Manchester City0–2Liverpool
1 Dec 2024Manchester City @ Liverpool2–0Liverpool
10 Mar 2024Manchester City @ Liverpool1–1Draw
25 Nov 2023Liverpool @ Manchester City1–1Draw
1 Apr 2023Liverpool @ Manchester City4–1Manchester City
16 Oct 2022Manchester City @ Liverpool1–0Liverpool
10 Apr 2022Liverpool @ Manchester City2–2Draw
3 Oct 2021Manchester City @ Liverpool2–2Draw

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 38 meetings on file.

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