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Model picks & player props
Denver Broncos
VS
Los Angeles Chargers

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Picks & Predictions · Sun 11 Oct

Our model graded 20 markets for Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers and backs Over 24.5 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $350.

NFL
Los Angeles
Sun 11 Oct 2026, 8:05PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded

Sunday 11 October 2026: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 24.5 Alternate Team Total Points +250

The model graded 20 markets for Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $350 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 11 Oct 2026, 8:05PM at Los Angeles.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win34.7%
The price says26.9%
Best price+250
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Alternate Team Total Points Over 24.5 Long-shot35% chance +250
Alternate Team Total Points Members only Lean51% chance Members
Total Points Members only Lean55% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →
Denver Broncos are the model's favourite to beat Los Angeles Chargers, with a 60% chance to win. Predicted score: Los Angeles Chargers 20.8 – Denver Broncos 23.4. Kick-off Sun 11 Oct, 8:05PM at Los Angeles. Best bet: Over 24.5 at +250.
How they've been scoring this season
Denver BroncosLos Angeles Chargers
Won-lost2-20-4
Points scored per game18.516.8
Points allowed per game23.526.5
On the road / at home0-2 away0-2 at home
Last 5 gamesLWWLLLLL
Their games average 42.6 total points this season.
From the 4 Denver Broncos and 4 Los Angeles Chargers games on our books this season.
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How the price moved

When prices opened: Denver Broncos about 6 in 10 to win. Now: about 6 in 10. Moved toward Denver Broncos since prices opened.

Best price and how much the bookies keep

Who wins
TeamMarket's chanceFair priceBest price
Denver Broncosabout 6 in 10$1.60 (-167)$1.55 (-182)
Chargersabout 4 in 10$2.66 (+166)$2.60 (+160)

On this game the bookies keep about $4.20 of every $100 bet on who wins, going by the 21 books we check.

All NFL odds this week →

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Alternate Team Total Points
Over
28.5
+255
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 62,802+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Los Angeles Chargers on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Los Angeles Chargers
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Kalshi
on Denver Broncos
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Denver Broncos

  • Riley Moss CBQuestionable
  • Dondrea Tillman LBOut
  • Pat Surtain II CBDoubtful
  • Pat Bryant WRDoubtful
  • Jonah Coleman RBOut

Los Angeles Chargers

  • Scott Matlock FBOut
  • Derwin James Jr. SOut
  • Rashawn Slater OTOut
  • Ladd McConkey WRQuestionable
  • Brenen Thompson WROut
  • Dalvin Tomlinson DTOut
  • Charlie Kolar TEOut
  • Trevor Penning GQuestionable
  • Joe Alt OTQuestionable
  • Donte Jackson CBQuestionable
  • Kayode Awosika GOut
Availability updated Oct 6, 3:57AM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers: The game is played indoor dome, so wind and rain won't touch the passing or kicking game, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueindoor dome
Surfaceartificial turf
Wind / weatherIndoors — wind and precipitation are not a factor
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: indoor and domed games remove wind and rain from the equation, which tends to support passing totals and kicking accuracy versus an exposed outdoor game.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

1 market live
MoneylineLos Angeles Chargers to winNo line posted

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadLos Angeles Chargers spreadNo line posted

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsBroncos @ ChargersOver 42.5 -110
55%over %

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers — recent results

Los Angeles Chargers have won 0 of their last 5 games; Denver Broncos have won 3 of their last 5.

Los Angeles Chargers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L23–30SEAAway
L16–24BUFAway
L14–26LVHome
L14–26ARIHome
L18–20LARHome
Denver Broncos — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L14–24SFAway
W30–26LARHome
W20–13JAXHome
L10–31KCAway
W34–6MINHome

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Los Angeles Chargers won 0, Denver Broncos won 1.

DateLos Angeles ChargersDenver BroncosWinner
Jan 4319Denver Broncos

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Los Angeles Chargers
PlayerStatus
Scott Matlock FBOUT
Derwin James Jr. SOUT
Rashawn Slater OTOUT
Ladd McConkey WRQUESTIONABLE
Brenen Thompson WROUT
Dalvin Tomlinson DTOUT
Charlie Kolar TEOUT
Trevor Penning GQUESTIONABLE
Denver Broncos
PlayerStatus
Riley Moss CBQUESTIONABLE
Dondrea Tillman LBOUT
Pat Surtain II CBDOUBTFUL
Pat Bryant WRDOUBTFUL
Jonah Coleman RBOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers — where the money went

Since betting opened on Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, the market has moved away from Los Angeles Chargers across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Los Angeles Chargers▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Denver Broncos▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Over 42.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 42.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — Los Angeles Chargers 2.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Denver Broncos -2.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Over 42▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 42▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Broncos vs Chargers, or as Chargers vs Broncos. The next scheduled game is Sunday 11 October 2026 at Los Angeles. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers head-to-head record

Final scores · 22 meetings on record
Denver Broncos 13–9 across the last 22 meetings · these games average 39.3 points (meetings on record since 2015)

Last meeting: Sun 4 Jan 2026, Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos: the Broncos won 19-3.

DateGameScoreWinner
4 Jan 2026Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos19–3Denver Broncos
21 Sep 2025Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers23–20Los Angeles Chargers
19 Dec 2024Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers34–27Los Angeles Chargers
13 Oct 2024Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos16–23Los Angeles Chargers
31 Dec 2023Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos16–9Denver Broncos
10 Dec 2023Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers7–24Denver Broncos
8 Jan 2023Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos31–28Denver Broncos
17 Oct 2022Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers19–16Los Angeles Chargers
2 Jan 2022Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers34–13Los Angeles Chargers
28 Nov 2021Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos28–13Denver Broncos

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 22 meetings on file.

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