Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Shane Bieber is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On Pitcher - Earned Runs, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 54%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Under 4.50 Hlanded 4 of the last 4
Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.
Model updated Sep 20, 10:17PM UTC
MLB
Shane Bieber
CLE
Shane Bieber has one live pick today: Pitcher - Earned Runs Under 2.5 that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs
Under 2.5
-114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
Toronto Blue Jays
@
Tampa Bay Rays
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida · Indoor
Thu 20 Aug, 5:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts overs: 164 of 342 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Friday that it "would be tough" for Bieber (shoulder) to return from the 15-day injured list before the end of the regular season, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.
updated Sep 18, 9:53PM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
54 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 54.1% · before adjusting for past results 80.5% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +0.9%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Earned Runs | 80.5% | 54.1% | 53.2% | 1.97 | +27.3% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/0 |
| Last 5 games | 0/0 |
| Last 10 games | 0/0 |
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Shane Bieber (CLE) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Tampa Bay Rays play Toronto Blue Jays in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Shane Bieber (CLE) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-114). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.77 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Shane Bieber (CLE) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Shane Bieber is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +27.3% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday 20 August at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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