Here are our NFL picks for Monday 5 October 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Puka Nacua (LA) Under 6.5 Receptions, priced at -114 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Puka Nacua (LA) Under 6.5 Receptions (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Philadelphia Eagles play Los Angeles Rams in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Puka Nacua (LA) Under 6.5 Receptions. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

George Holani (SEA) Under 49.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-115)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Seattle Seahawks play Los Angeles Chargers in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is George Holani (SEA) Under 49.5 Rush + Rec Yards. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Bo Nix (DEN) Under 21.5 Pass Completions (+104)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

San Francisco 49ers play Denver Broncos in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Bo Nix (DEN) Under 21.5 Pass Completions. It was priced at +104 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tory Horton (SEA) Over 1.5 Receptions (+172)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Seattle Seahawks play Los Angeles Chargers in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Tory Horton (SEA) Over 1.5 Receptions. It was priced at +172 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kyle Monangai (CHI) Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-101)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Chicago Bears play New York Jets in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Kyle Monangai (CHI) Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts. It was priced at -101 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kaleb Johnson (GB) Under 31.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Buccaneers play Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Kaleb Johnson (GB) Under 31.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's NFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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