Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Monday 03/16 (Obi Toppin Highlights): Best Value Bets

As the Cleveland Cavaliers prepare to host the Dallas Mavericks, all eyes will be on Evan Mobley, but it might be wise to consider the under on his points total set at 19.5. While Mobley had a strong showing against the Mavericks in their last encounter, averaging nearly 20 points, recent trends tell a different story, especially at home. Over his last five games, he's netted an average of just 18.8 points at home, and his overall average dips to 17.8 during this stretch. The Cavaliers' offense often runs through multiple players, limiting Mobley's scoring opportunities. Moreover, the Mavericks have shown they can effectively contain bigs, allowing Mobley to average only 17 points in their previous matchups. With an expected stat value of 16.38 and an overall hit rate of 67% on the under in his last 12 games, it seems safer to bank on Mobley staying below that 19.5 mark this time

Dennis Schroder (Detroit Pistons) Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds (-123)

As we dive into Sunday's matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Dallas Mavericks, Dennis Schroder presents a tantalizing opportunity for the points and rebounds prop. With an average of 13.4 points and 2.8 rebounds over his last five games, he's not just been consistent; he's been impactful, especially against teams like Dallas, where his scoring ramps up to an impressive 15.6 points per game historically.Schroder's recent form has seen him hit the over on this 11.5 line 4 out of his last 5 outings, and his home performances further bolster confidence, with an average of 12.2 points and 1.2 rebounds. The Mavericks' defense has struggled against perimeter players, which could play right into Schroder's hands. Given these trends, expecting him to surpass that 11.5 mark feels not just feasible, but likely. This is a prime spot to back Schroder on Sunday.

Scottie Barnes (Toronto Raptors) Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125)

When the Toronto Raptors face off against the Detroit Pistons, all eyes should be on Scottie Barnes, who's primed for a standout performance. His recent home games show that he's not just a scorer; he's a well-rounded contributor, averaging a solid 19 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists in the last five at home. Barnes has a knack for elevating his game against the Pistons, averaging nearly 20 points and close to 10 rebounds in their recent matchups. Plus, with a hit rate of 14 out of 19 for the points-rebounds-assists prop, including 4 of his last 5 at home, it's clear he thrives in familiar territory. The numbers suggest he could well exceed the 27.5 mark, making this an enticing wager. Expect Barnes to shine when it matters most on Sunday.

Russell Westbrook (Denver Nuggets) Under 5.5 Rebounds (-147)

As the Kings host the Jazz, all eyes will be on Russell Westbrook, but savvy bettors should consider a different angle-taking the Under on his rebounds at 5.5. Westbrook's recent performances tell a compelling story; he's averaged just 3.2 rebounds in his last five games, and while he's slightly better at home with 4.4, that still falls short of the mark. The Jazz are no slouches on the glass either, allowing only 4.6 rebounds per game to opposing guards.Moreover, Westbrook's hit rate is a telling indicator-he's gone Under in all of his last eight games, with a perfect 4-for-4 record at home. With an expected stat value of just 4.05, it's clear that this matchup favors the Under. If you're looking for a strategic play, targeting Westbrook's rebounds could pay dividends in a game where he may not be as involved on the boards as some expect.

Brice Sensabaugh (Utah Jazz) Under 6.5 Rebounds + Assists (-159)

As the Kings take on the Jazz, all eyes should be on Brice Sensabaugh's performance, particularly when it comes to his rebounds and assists. With a combined prop set at 6.5, the under is looking quite enticing. Over his last five games, Sensabaugh has averaged just 3.4 rebounds and 1.8 assists, comfortably falling below that mark. And while his away stats show a slight uptick to 4.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists, it's worth noting that his contributions against the Jazz have averaged only 2.8 rebounds and 1.2 assists. With his overall hit rate recently showing just one miss in five outings, the trend heavily leans toward the under. Plus, the Jazz are solid defensively, which could further stifle his numbers. Given Sensabaugh's recent form and matchup, betting the under on 6.5 feels like the prudent play.