Today's Top MLB Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Thursday 07/23 (Michael McGreevy Highlights): Data-Driven Baseball Insights

As the Cardinals host the Diamondbacks, all eyes will be on Ketel Marte, who’s had a rollercoaster season at the plate. Lately, he’s been struggling against right-handed pitchers, and with St. Louis’ ace on the mound, that trend could continue. The Cardinals' pitching staff has been stellar at home, boasting a 3.50 ERA and limiting opponents to a mere .230 batting average. Marte, who typically thrives in hitter-friendly scenarios, is likely to find the going tougher against this formidable arm. Moreover, recent matchups show Marte averaging just 0.9 total bases against similar pitching. With the odds reflecting a 59.5% implied probability that he’ll stay under 1.5 total bases, it’s a smart bet. Given the current form of both Marte and the Cardinals’ bullpen, backing the ‘Under’ seems like the way to go in this intriguing matchup.

Chandler Simpson (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-164)

When the Toronto Blue Jays face off against the Tampa Bay Rays, all eyes will be on Chandler Simpson, who might find the going tough in this matchup. The Rays have been a nightmare for opposing hitters lately, particularly with their elite pitching staff. Their bullpen has posted a staggering 2.80 ERA over the past month, making it hard for anyone to rack up extra bases. Simpson, while talented, has struggled to find consistency at the plate, especially against right-handed pitchers, which the Rays will trot out. His recent stats show a tendency to ground out or fly out rather than get on base for extra bases. With the stakes high and the Rays' defensive prowess backing their pitchers, the under on Simpson’s total bases feels like a sharp play. Expect a game where runs are scarce, and Simpson’s opportunities to capitalize will be limited.

Jordan Walker (STL) Under 1.5 Hits (-256)

As the Cardinals take on the Diamondbacks, all eyes will be on Jordan Walker. While the young slugger has shown flashes of brilliance, recent trends suggest he might struggle against the Arizona pitching staff. The Diamondbacks boast a solid rotation, with their starters limiting opponents to a low batting average, particularly against left-handed hitters like Walker. Moreover, Walker has been in a bit of a slump lately, with only a handful of hits in his last few games, and his timing at the plate has been off. The Cardinals have also faced tough pitching recently, which hasn’t made things easier for him at the plate. Given his struggles and the Diamondbacks’ ability to neutralize left-handers, taking the under on Walker’s hits seems prudent. This matchup sets the stage for a potential low-output game for him, making the under 1.5 a compelling play.

Geraldo Perdomo (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-179)

As the Cardinals host the Diamondbacks on Thursday, the spotlight turns to Geraldo Perdomo, whose recent performance suggests a tough outing against St. Louis pitching. Perdomo has been in a rut lately, struggling to find consistent contact and sitting with an underwhelming .240 batting average against right-handers. With the Cardinals sending out a formidable righty, who’s been effective at limiting hard contact and generating ground balls, it’s a challenging matchup for the young infielder. Moreover, St. Louis’ bullpen has stepped up significantly, boasting a lower-than-average ERA over the past month. Given these circumstances, it seems likely that Perdomo will have difficulty reaching that 1.5 total bases mark. With the odds favoring the under and the trend pointing towards a quiet night at the plate for Perdomo, betting under 1.5 total bases feels like the right play here. Expect a tight battle where the Cardinals’ pitching shines.

Alec Burleson (STL) Under 1.5 Hits (-233)

As the Cardinals prepare to host the Diamondbacks, all eyes will be on Alec Burleson, but there’s a strong case to bet the under on his hits. Burleson’s bat has faced some turbulence lately; he’s managed just a hit in several of his past games—struggling against right-handed pitchers like Arizona’s ace, who’s been effective at neutralizing left-handed hitters. The Diamondbacks’ pitching staff has been on a hot streak, limiting opponents to under 3 runs a game in their last few outings. Plus, Burleson has shown vulnerability in high-pressure situations, particularly against teams with strong bullpens. Given these recent trends, betting on him to stay under 1.5 hits seems to align with the current narrative. With a solid implied probability and a favorable matchup, this wager provides an intriguing opportunity to capitalize on his current form.