On Wednesday 5 August 2026, Sydney Swans play Port Adelaide Power in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) Over 16.5 Disposals, priced at -769 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) Over 16.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to dependable midfielders, Jason Horne-Francis is the epitome of consistency. His last five away games have seen him average a stellar 23.6 disposals, showcasing his ability to find the footy wherever he plays. Facing the Sydney Swans, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 21 disposals in their previous encounters, sets the stage for another standout performance. Horne-Francis' recent form is red hot, boasting an impressive 8-game hit streak for away fixtures and a flawless 6-game streak overall. With a model prediction of 23.8 disposals and a solid 88.5% implied probability, the Over 16.5 disposals line seems like a safe bet. Expect him to continue his stellar run, racking up possessions and driving Port Adelaide's midfield engine at the SCG.

Isaac Heeney (Sydney Swans) Over 21.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Isaac Heeney has been an absolute machine on the field lately, consistently racking up disposals like a seasoned veteran. In his last five home games, he's been a dominant force, averaging a whopping 30 disposals per game, well above the set line of 21.5. And let's not forget his efficiency, with a solid 66.7% disposal efficiency rate to boot. Facing off against Port Adelaide, Heeney has historically performed well, averaging 20.3 disposals against them in his last five matchups. With his current form and track record, it's no surprise he's riding an impressive eight-game hit streak for disposals at home. If you're looking for a reliable bet to snag some solid returns, backing Heeney to go over 21.5 disposals in this game at the SCG seems like a smart play given his recent form and historical performance against the Power.

James Jordon (Sydney Swans) Over 10.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to dependable midfielders, James Jordon of the Sydney Swans stands out as a consistent performer. In his last five home games, Jordon has been a midfield maestro, averaging 16.4 disposals, well above the set line of 10.5. Facing Port Adelaide, a team he typically thrives against with an average of 15.3 disposals in their recent matchups, Jordon is poised to shine once again. With his exceptional disposal efficiency of 82.7% and an impressive recent hit rate of 8 consecutive games at home, Jordon is in prime form to surpass the line. His ability to find space, create opportunities, and impact the game make him a strong bet to rack up the possessions needed to secure the Over 10.5 disposals.

That is how our model reads Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide Power. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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