Bryan Reynolds (PIT) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-185)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Pirates take on the Brewers, all eyes will be on Bryan Reynolds, but the matchup may not favor him as much as we think. While Reynolds boasts a solid batting average, recent trends tell a different story against left-handed pitching, where he’s struggled to find the gaps. The Brewers' starter, a crafty lefty, has kept left-handed batters in check, limiting hard contact and inducing plenty of grounders. Looking at Reynolds' last few games, he’s been held to fewer than two total bases in several contests, particularly against teams with strong lefty arms. With the Pirates facing a Milwaukee squad that’s shown a knack for shutting down opponents in pivotal series, the under on Reynolds’ total bases feels promising. Given his current form and the Brewers’ pitching advantage, I’m leaning toward the under 1.5 total bases being the smart play here.

Nick Gonzales (PIT) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-192)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Pirates gear up to face the Brewers, all eyes will be on Nick Gonzales. While the young infielder has displayed flashes of brilliance, his recent form suggests that the under on his total bases is the smart play here. Gonzales is currently hitting only .217 against right-handed pitching, and with Milwaukee’s ace, Brandon Woodruff, on the mound, it’s likely to be a tough day at the plate. Woodruff has been dominant, allowing just a .195 batting average against him this season. Additionally, the Pirates have struggled to get on base consistently, evidenced by their low team OPS of .675 this month. With the Brewers' bullpen also ranking among the best in the league, it’s hard to see Gonzales breaking through for more than a single base hit. With the odds favoring the under at 1.5 total bases, this bet aligns well with the current trends and matchups.

Christian Yelich (MIL) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Pirates gear up to face the Brewers, all eyes will be on Christian Yelich, but betting on him to exceed 1.5 total bases might not be the safest play. Yelich has struggled against the Pirates' pitching staff recently, managing just a .220 average in his last ten games against them. The Pirates' bullpen has been surprisingly effective, ranking in the top ten for limiting extra-base hits this season. With their recent form, they’ve held opposing hitters to a paltry .700 OPS over the last month. Moreover, Yelich's performance has been patchy, and with the Pirates' solid defensive alignment, he could find it tough to get those extra bases. With an implied probability of 65.4% favoring the 'Under' and his recent trends, it's wise to lean towards him staying below that 1.5 mark this Sunday. The matchup simply doesn’t favor the Brewers' star tonight.

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