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The latest Bet Better model pick for William Contreras is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +6.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 10:04AM UTC
MLB

William Contreras

MLB

+6.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -182 (1.55)
+6.4% Edge
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul, 4:15PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.0%
Implied Probability
64.5%
Model Edge
+6.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases71.0%—64.5%1.41+6.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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William Contreras (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-182)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Pirates host the Brewers, all eyes will be on William Contreras, but the under on his total bases seems like a savvy play. Despite his talent, Contreras has been somewhat inconsistent lately, managing only a handful of multi-base games in recent outings. The Pirates' pitching staff, particularly their bullpen, has improved significantly, limiting opponents to an average of just 3.9 runs over the last week. Moreover, the Brewers’ offense has struggled against lefties, and with the Pirates throwing a southpaw today, Contreras may find himself facing tougher matchups than usual. His recent stats reflect this difficulty, as he’s logged a modest batting average around .220 in similar scenarios. With the under at 1.5 total bases looking favorable, it’s hard to ignore the compelling narrative that suggests Contreras might fall short in this matchup. Trust the trends; this could be a quieter day at the plate for him.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
Streak2L2055%
O 0.550%
O 1.530%
O 2.510%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.5 · hi 2 · lo 0
0200

William Contreras MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.530%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%

William Contreras MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak2L2065%
O 0.560%
O 1.530%
O 2.520%
O 3.520%
O 4.520%

William Contreras MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.520%

William Contreras MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%
O 1.520%

William Contreras MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
Streak2L2050%
O 0.550%
O 1.520%

William Contreras MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
67%hit L10
Streak2

William Contreras MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 67% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -182 ✗ MISS
09 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -250 ✗ MISS
06 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -263 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Hits — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs — — — Pending

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About This Player

William Contreras is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for William Contreras is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.4% on this pick. Their next game is Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday 12 July at PNC Park, Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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