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The latest Bet Better model pick for Kyle Harrison is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On the Pitcher - Earned Runs market the model assigns a calibrated win probability of 60%, versus the book's implied 49%, for a model edge of +25.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 12:50AM UTC
MLB

Kyle Harrison

MLB

+25.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs Under 1.5 +103 (2.03) · $100→$203
+25.9% Edge
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego, California · Outdoor
Wed 12 Aug, 1:40AM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 559 of 1,032 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs MIL @ SD
updated Aug 12, 1:40AM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
75.2%
Implied Probability
49.3%
Model Edge
+25.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Earned Runs75.2%59.6%49.3%2.23+25.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/3
Last 10 games1/3

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AI Analysis

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Kyle Harrison Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+103)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play Milwaukee Brewers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Kyle Harrison Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+103). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at +103 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Kyle Harrison has gone over 2.5 SO in 40% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o2.540%
o3.520%
o4.50%
o5.50%
o6.50%
o7.50%
o8.50%
o9.50%
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Aug 26 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers Pitcher - Walks 1.5 Under -222 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers Pitcher - Hits Allowed 4.5 Under -179 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers Pitcher - Walks 1.5 Under -164 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Kyle Harrison is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kyle Harrison is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +25.9% on this pick. Their next game is Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres on Wednesday 12 August at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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